Qatar Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Date: August 8, 2012
Pages: 71
US$ 1,175.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Qatar sits on the world’s third-largest proven gas reserves, which are concentrated in the offshore North Field. The country’s robust efforts to commercialise this deposit have resulted in Qatar becoming the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. We see it sustaining this lead over the forecast period, with the successful deployment of gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology boosting its petroleum export volumes. Qatar’s crude oil prospects are less exciting, as its oil reserves are modest in comparison with its Persian Gulf neighbours.

We highlight these trends and developments in Qatar’s oil and gas sector:
  • BMI sees Qatari gas production growing to over 190bcm by 2021. However, Qatar’s gas consumption is set to rise quickly to as much as 68bcm over the same period.
  • Our forecasts see gas exports peaking in 2015 at 126bcm, pending an increase in pipeline exports to the UAE and Oman through the Dolphin pipeline and/or the construction of new liquefaction trains. We believe that gas exports will remain at this rate until the end of our forecast period in 2021.
  • We expect a 20% increase in oil production in the period 2011-21, with a small increase in net exports. The rise in Qatari refining capacity will boost domestic consumption of crude oil, while Qatar will also start exporting more fuels as a result of the start-up of Pearl GTL.
  • We see Qatari proven oil reserves remaining broadly flat in the period 2011-21, with gas reserves declining in the same period by about 7%. Exploration successes create upside risks to these forecasts.
  • The successful execution of Pearl GTL will boost Qatar’s petroleum export revenues and also bodes well for feedstock supplies to Qatar’s petrochemicals sector.

Qatar’s dependence on oil leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. Our assumptions of a slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global oil demand. At the time of writing we are forecasting average OPEC basket oil prices to fall from US$107.05/bbl in 2012 to US$96.15/bbl in 2014, which will have a somewhat detrimental impact on the country’s macroeconomic outlook. However, we emphasise that large fiscal and current account surpluses, as well as a massive stock of foreign-exchange (FX) reserves, provide the economy with a significant buffer in the event of any short-term decline in oil prices.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Qatar Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
  Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d)
  Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Qatar Energy Market Overview
  Table: Qatar – Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Qatar Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
  Table: Qatar Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Refineries In Qatar
  Table: GTL Plants In Qatar
LNG Terminals
  Table: LNG Terminals In Qatar
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
  Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Qatari Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
International Energy Relations
  Table: Key Upstream Players
  Table: Key Downstream Player
Company Monitor
Qatar Petroleum (QP)
ExxonMobil Oil Qatar
Total Qatar
Royal Dutch Shell
Maersk Oil – Summary
Occidental Petroleum – Summary
Qatargas – Summary
RasGas – Summary
Tasweeq – Summary
Sasol – Summary
ConocoPhillips – Summary
Cosmo Oil – Summary
Wintershall – Summary
GDF Suez – Summary
CNOOC – Summary
PetroChina – Summary
Service Companies
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: BMI O&G Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: BMI Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: BMI Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Middle East – Regional Appendix
  Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d)
  Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d)
  Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d)
  Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d)
Table : Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d)
  Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d)
  Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
  Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
  Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
  Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
  Table: Net LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
  Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
  Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
  Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
  Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
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