The Post Carbon Landscape: Alternative Pathways to a Low Carbon Landscape

Date: June 22, 2010
Pages: 183
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US$ 2,875.00
Publisher: Business Insights
Report type: Strategic Report
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ID: P9BD7CD24F5EN
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The Post Carbon Landscape: Alternative Pathways to a Low Carbon Landscape
Over the last 30 years more and more scientists and economists have come to understand that the world is a complex dynamic system rather than a linear Newtonian one.

The world of finance experienced the extreme effects of the workings of a complex dynamic system as relatively isolated events on the world stage were amplified rapidly into features which threatened the totality of the global economic system. We are currently living through the aftermath of this extreme turbulence.

The world of energy is about to enter an era of ever increasing complexity and interdependence as patterns of demand shift through such changes as a moves to the electrification of transport, as populations grow, and as rising economic prosperity spurs on demand for energy based services. What the size and shape of demand will be is highly uncertain. What the portfolio of sources will be to meet that demand is also highly uncertain with the advent of non-traditional sources of oil and gas, the growth of renewable generation, the potential rise of distributed community based generation, the in-home generation potential, and the use of cars and homes as energy sinks and storage. In addition we see the gas and electricity markets moving from a world defined by energy and metering to one defined by communications and IT (together with energy and metering). Picturing this world as a system is the essential first step in understanding what may happen.

Key features of this report
  • Exploration of the complex dynamic system of energy
  • A review of the bandwidth of demand uncertainty based on projections of population growth, rising economic prosperity and the potential for energy efficiency improvement
  • An examination of how the world of supply may evolve
  • An exploration of two scenarios – pathways to a Low Carbon Landscape
  • A comparison of the scenarios and the evidence for them in the world today
  • The argument for complex dynamic system simulation as an essential tool for managing the energy future

Scope of this report
  • Achieve a quick and comprehensive understanding of how energy market demand trends and supply possibilities may impact on the world by 2050
  • Gain a helicopter perspective on how the various elements of the energy system interact
  • Understand the bandwidth of uncertainty facing the world in order to appreciate the breadth of outcome, and the scale of the challenge, facing all of us
  • Identify the opportunities for grasping emergent market elements such as non-conventional gas, in-home and community generation etc

Key Market Issues
  • Climate change:- The growth of carbon dioxide emissions globally potentially threaten the viability of our existing socio-economic systems. Governments around the globe are extremely aware of the issues although differences in beliefs and responses mean that it is by no means certain what our carbon outcome will be

  • Demographics:- The population is set to grow from just under 6 billion to just over 9 billion people. By 2050 the economic prosperity of the Chinese is likely to the same as the citizens of the USA today which in turn will fuel the demand for energy services. Demographics put us on the path to a world of extremely high energy demand – and a very high carbon outcome.

  • Demand:- Looking at both demographics and potential energy savings the bandwidth of future demand lies somewhere between 12 and 24 billion tonnes of oil equivalent in 2050 vs a level of 8 billion tonnes of oil equivalent today

Key findings from this report
  • The world of energy and carbon can be represented as a complex dynamic system
  • Energy demand will increase either a little or a lot, from 8 billion tonnes of oil equivalent today to somewhere between 12 and 24 billion tonnes of oil equivalent by 2050
  • A lack of hydrocarbon molecules is not the problem – even given peak oil. The questions are: can these be exploited in an environmentally and economically acceptable fashion? And can the growth of supply keep up with the pace of growth of demand?
  • To mitigate climate change energy efficiency is not enough – the decarbonisation of supply is essential
  • Significant benefits can be derived from electrifying transport, and to some extent heating, providing the source of the electricity is carbon free

Key questions answered
  • What will the demographics of the world look like in 2050 in terms of the number of people, wealth and energy based service requirements?
  • What levels of energy efficiency improvement can we foresee?
  • What are the implications for energy demand – in total and at sector level?
  • Where will future hydrocarbons come from after peak oil?
  • What will generation look like in 2050?
The Post Carbon Landscape
Acknowledgements iii
Practitioner Insight iii
Executive summary
Introduction
The low carbon system
Energy demand
Household energy demand
Passenger transport
Marine and aviation
Industrial energy demand
Commercial energy demand
Demand summary
Carbon and energy prices
Energy supply
Generation
Joining the markets – energy transmission and distribution
Two future worlds
Autonomy – “every man for himself”
Community – “all for one, and one for all”
“Autonomy” vs. “Community”
Conclusion

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

Summary
Introduction
The aim of this report
The systems and scenario approach
What this report is, and what it is not
The structure of the report

CHAPTER 2 THE LOW CARBON SYSTEM

Summary
Introduction
Electricity supply
Smart Metering and Grids
Local sustainability

CHAPTER 3 ENERGY DEMAND

Summary
Introduction

CHAPTER 4 HOUSEHOLD ENERGY DEMAND

Summary
Introduction
Demographics
Climate change and population growth
Household heating, cooling, lighting and power
Growth in population/households
Growth in access to electricity
Complex system behavior
Fuel switching

CHAPTER 5 PASSENGER TRANSPORT

Summary
Introduction
Vehicle type
From oil to the electric car
China and electric vehicles

CHAPTER 6 MARINE AND AVIATION

Summary
Introduction
Marine
Aviation

CHAPTER 7 INDUSTRIAL ENERGY DEMAND

Summary
Introduction
Industry demand

CHAPTER 8 COMMERCIAL ENERGY DEMAND

Summary
Introduction
Commercial demand

CHAPTER 9 DEMAND SUMMARY

Summary
Introduction
Demand

CHAPTER 10 CARBON AND ENERGY PRICES

Summary
Introduction
The carbon pricing system
Carbon price direct impacts
Electrification
Economic growth
Hydrocarbon price
Emissions trading or taxes

CHAPTER 11 ENERGY SUPPLY

Summary
Introduction
Hydrocarbon
Availability of oil
Oil Shale and Shale Oil
Cost
Greenhouse gas emissions
Local environmental impacts
Availability of coal
Availability of gas
Gas from waste
Non-conventional gas
Gas hydrates
On balance

CHAPTER 12 GENERATION

Summary
Introduction
The current generation mix
The future generation mix
The replacement of centralized generation with distributed generation

CHAPTER 13 JOINING THE MARKETS €� ENERGY TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Summary
Introduction
Smartening electricity and gas
Joining up electricity and gas
Smart communities

CHAPTER 14 TWO FUTURE WORLDS

Summary
Introduction
Why scenarios?

CHAPTER 15 AUTONOMY €� €�EVERY MAN FOR HIMSELF€�

Summary
Introduction
Autonomy – “Everyman for himself”

CHAPTER 16 COMMUNITY €� €�ALL FOR ONE, AND ONE FOR ALL€�

Summary
Introduction
Community – “All for one, and one for all”

CHAPTER 17 €�AUTONOMY€� VS. €�COMMUNITY€�

Summary
Introduction
Autonomy versus Community
Weak signals
Strategic pointers

CHAPTER 18 CONCLUSION

Summary
Introduction
Lessons learned
Demand
Supply
The carbon and energy system
Scenarios
Further work
Glossary
In the System diagrams:
Index

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1: Landscape carbon and demand, 2010
Figure 2.2: Energy price and hydrocarbon supply, 2010
Figure 2.3: Electricity supply
Figure 2.4: Smart (Metering and Grids)
Figure 2.5: Local sustainability, 2010
Figure 3.6: Demand, 2010
Figure 4.7: Energy intensity of economies, 1970-2005
Figure 4.8: Number of people without access to electricity (m), 2009
Figure 5.9: Fuel efficiency for cars and light trucks on the road (MPG) 1970-2005
Figure 5.10: Carbon content of fossil fuels (Tons of Carbon per TJ of energy)
Figure 10.11: The carbon pricing system, 2010
Figure 11.12: Ratio oil reserves to production, 2009
Figure 11.13: Peak Oil (bn barrels/year), 2007
Figure 11.14: Global Shale Oil reserves
Figure 11.15: Crude oil spot prices ($ per barrel), 1986-2009
Figure 11.16: Oil Shale economics
Figure 11.17: US production of unconventional gas (bcm), 2009
Figure 11.18: Percentage of total US gas production (bcm), 2009
Figure 15.19: Autonomy scenario, 2010
Figure 15.20: The carbon pricing system, 2010
Figure 16.21: Community scenario, 2010
Figure 16.22: The carbon pricing system, 2010
Figure 17.23: Autonomy vs. Community, 2010

LIST OF TABLES

Table 4.1: Population growth ratios, 2008
Table 4.2: Number of people without access to electricity (m), 2009
Table 4.3: GDP estimates
Table 4.4: Heating and cooling degree days
Table 4.5: Urbanization (%), 2007
Table 5.6: Passenger vehicles
Table 5.7: Carbon content of fossil fuels (Tons of Carbon per TJ of energy)
Table 9.8: Sectoral energy demand, 2010
Table 11.9: Oil consumption, production, reserves, 2009
Table 11.10: Global Shale Oil reserves
Table 11.11: Coal consumption, production, reserves, 2009
Table 11.12: Gas consumption, production, reserves, 2009
Table 12.13: Global generation mix, 2009
Table 12.14: Future generation mix, 2009
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