Poland Power Report Q3 2016

Date: May 18, 2016
Pages: 69
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Recently elected Order and Justice (PiS) government's support for coal-fired generation and proposed punitive requirements for wind power developers will dampen investor interest and ensure the country's continued reliance on the strategically important coal sector for power generation. This will put Poland at odds with the EU over emissions and environmental targets.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
  • We maintain our view that coal will dominate Poland's power mix, accounting for more than 75% of the total generation throughout our forecast period to 2025.
  • According to reports by Greenpeace, in early 2016 Poland decided to scrap Choczewo as a potential site for the construction of the proposed nuclear power plant.
  • In early March 2016, Polish government presented draft legislation, proposing crippling requirements for wind power developers. We believe these requirements, combined with the new PiS majority government's support for coal-fired generation, will have a detrimental impact on investor confidence in the Polish wind power sector.
  • As such, we downgraded our growth forecast for Poland's non-hydro renewables generation. We now believe non-hydro renewables generation will average 3.4% expansion in the next ten years (down from 4.9%), contributing 18.1% to the total power mix in 2025.
  • In February 2016, Sweden-based Eltel signed two power transmission contracts for reconstruction of high voltage substations with the Polish transmission grid operator PSE. The projects are in the Jasiniec and Joachimow regions and have a total value of approximately EUR25mn.
  • In early 2016, Poland's largest energy utility Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE) and GE signed an approximately EUR40mn deal to upgrade generator and steam turbine assets at the Turow power plant. The upgrades are expected to increase the facility's output by 45MW.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Poland 2015-2021)
Industry Forecast
Poland Snapshot
  Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2015-2020)
  Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2020-2025)
  Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Poland Power Forecast Scenario
  Table: Questions Remain Over Plans For New Coal
  Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
  Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
  Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
  Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
  Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
  Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
Transmission And Distribution
  Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
  Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
  Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
  Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index
  Table: CEE Risk/Reward Index
Poland Power Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure
Regulation And Competition
  Table: Proposed EU 2030 Energy And Climate Targets
Sustainable Energy Policies
Poland Power Projects Database
Competitive Landscape
Company Profile
Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE)
Regional Overview
CEE Power Regional Overview
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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