Peru Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: June 15, 2016
Pages: 90
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: P4D55047482EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Production of crude and natural gas will grow over the next decade owning to strong project pipeline and continued government support. However, the country will produce below its potential owning to a history of strong environmental opposition and a highly competitive regional market, diminishing the attractiveness of the country's oil and gas sector amid the industry-wide downturn.

Key developments in the Peruvian oil and gas sector:
  • Peru will remain among the region's brightest growth stories through 2017, as production growth in the mining sector and strengthening public investment lead accelerating economic activity. In recent quarters, growth has accelerated largely due to the beginning of production at Las Bambas, a massive copper mine set to rank among the world's three largest when it hits full production capacity later this year.
  • We expect the completion of the Southern Peruvian Pipeline (GSP) will be delayed to 2019 following the exit of its constructor, Odebrecht, the owner of a 55% stake in the project. The GSP - which is currently 34% completed - is expected to supply feedstock to two thermal power plants currently under construction in Ilo and Mollendo.
  • On May 6, Repsol and Petroperu agreed to increase fuel prices. Increases varied depending on the octane of the fuel, with prices at the pump rising from 2.6 to 4.7% in total.
  • Modernisation of Petroperu's 62,000b/d Talara refinery is progressing slightly ahead of schedule, supporting our current downstream capacity forecast. As of May 4, the project was 37% completed. In the same month, the company issued a tender for underwater lines and multibuoys. Eight groups submitted consultations as of May 31, including Cadape, Cobra Instalaciones y Servicios, Cosapi, JJCSchrader Camargo, M y C Pariñas, Mota-Engil.
  • The full commissioning of the 4.5mntp Train 1 of the Sabine Pass LNG export facility in the US in May will threaten Peru's LNG market share. Though this will compete with Peru's exports, we believe the country will remain a dominant player in the region due to a lower variable cost of production compared to US supplies.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Peru 2014-2020)
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Peru - Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Peru 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Peru 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Peru 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Peru 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Peru 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Peru 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Peru 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Peru 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Peru 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Peru 2014-2019)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Peru 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Peru 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Peru 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Peru 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Peru 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
  Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
  Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Peru - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index - Rewards
Upstream Index - Risks
Downstream Index - Rewards
Downstream Index - Risks
Market Overview
Peru Energy Market Overview
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
  Table: Latin American Regulatory Regimes
Government Policy
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Refineries in Peru
LNG Terminals
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players In Peru's Oil & Gas Sector
Company Profile
Latest Updates
  Table: Table - Major Assets in Peru
  Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics (USDmn)
Regional Overview
Latin America Overview
  Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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