Nigeria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: July 6, 2016
Pages: 105
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: N17616AEC81EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: A deteriorating security situation in the Niger Delta has forced us to knock 600,000b/d off our 2016 oil production forecast and unless resolved, the longer-term consequences for investment will be dire. While there have been some notable reforms to the NNPC, there is still a long way to go in order to create a transparent and profitable company that encourages investment and helps Nigeria reach its hydrocarbon potential.

The main trends and developments for Nigeria's oil & gas sector we highlight:
  • On the exploration front, the current situation is bleak. The NNPC plans to start exploratory drilling in the Lake Chad Basin by October 2016 having conducted 3D seismic surveys in 2015, according to NNPC Director Emmanuel Kachikwu.
  • A worsening security situation has lead us to severely downgrade Nigeria's oil production, as oil and gas instillations have been continually targeted since the start of the year, halting exports at a number of key export terminals.
  • The Aje Field, operated by Yinka Folawiyo Petroleum, announced first oil at the start of May 2016. The FPSO is located offshore Lagos and is expected to produce up to 40,000b/d.
  • The Trans-Forcados Pipeline that supplies the Forcados export terminal was blown up in February, triggering a force majeure (see 'Midstream Vulnerabilities: A Drag On Production Growth', February 29). Over the past four years the terminal has averaged over 190,000b/d of exports per month and local reports have suggested that 2016 exports would have been over 200,000b/d. After a second attack in June hampered repair efforts, Shell has decided to shut the terminal indefinitely until the security troubles are resolved.
  • Gas pipelines feeding power stations have been targeted by the Niger Delta Avengers, leading to reduction in our gas production forecast this quarter; we note further downside risk to production if the LNG terminal is targeted or larger pipelines are taken out for prolonged periods.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Upstream Project Database
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Nigeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Nigeria 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Nigeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Nigeria 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Nigeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Nigeria 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Nigeria 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Nigeria 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Nigeria 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Nigeria 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Nigeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Nigeria 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Nigeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Nigeria 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
  Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
  Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Nigeria - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Nigeria Energy Market Overview
Overview/State Role
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Nigeria - Fiscal Terms
  Table: Nigeria- Licenses And Contract Terms
The New Buhari Administration
Licensing Rounds
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Oil Terminals/Ports
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players - Nigerian Oil & Gas Sector
  Table: Nigeria Upstream Players
  Table: Nigeria Downstream Players
Company Profile
Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC)
Latest Updates
  Table: NNPC Key Assets
Latest Updates
  Table: ExxonMobil Key Fields
  Table: ExxonMobil Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Latest Updates
  Table: Total Key Assets
  Table: Total Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Latest Updates
  Table: Chevron Key Assets
  Table: Chevron Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Royal Dutch Shell
Latest Updates
  Table: Key Assets In Nigeria
  Table: Royal Dutch Shell Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Regional Overview
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
  Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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