Mexico Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: May 11, 2016
Pages: 121
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: M9B9F121D57EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Mexico's historic energy sector liberalisation marks the start of a fundamental shift for the country's hydrocarbons sector. Whilst it will be a number of years before results are seen in the country's production and reserves data, over the long term the reforms will bolster upstream activity and reverse a decade-long decline in oil production. Pemex's upstream activity will remain limited over the next two years amid the broad industry downturn.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
  • Weak fundamentals combined with bearish speculative positioning have sustained weakness of benchmark prices below profitable levels for Mexican crude production. Our forecast for continued price volatility over the next several months will weigh on Mexico's already downbeat outlook, limiting investment into existing projects by state-owned PetrĂ³leos Mexicanos (Pemex). We therefore maintain our downbeat expectation for total liquids production in 2016 at -6.9% y-o-y implying a reduction of 180,000b/d this year. This compares to a decline of 6.4% y-o-y in 2015 and extends Mexico's overall losses for a 12th consecutive year.
  • The Mexican government's USD4.2bn bailout of Pemex underscores the state-owned oil company's continued struggles in the face of an elevated debt burden, sizeable arrears to oilfield service providers and limited liquidity. While the bailout will weigh on Mexico's sovereign credentials in the short term, we believe damage to investor sentiment will be mitigated by the government's history of prudent macroeconomic policies and Pemex's ongoing cost-cutting measures.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Mexico - Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Round One Development Timeline
  Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Mexico 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Cost Per Well
  Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Mexico 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Mexican Refineries, Active And Proposed
  Table: Pemex Downstream Spending Plan
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Mexico 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Mexico 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Mexico 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Mexico 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Forecasts
Latest Updates
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Mexico 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Mexico 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
  Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
  Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Mexico - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index - Overview
Downstream Index - Overview
Market Overview
Energy Market Overview
Government Policy
Licensing And Regulation
  Table: First Bidding Round: Southern Region
  Table: Second Bidding Round - Northern Region
  Table: Third Bid Round - Chicontepec
  Table: Tender Schedule For Mexico's Licensing Round One
International Energy Relations
  Table: Mexico's Export Crude Grades
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Downstream Projects
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
  Table: LNG Import Terminals In Mexico
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Energy Players
  Table: Upstream Players
  Table: Downstream Players
Company Profile
  Table: Major Upstream Assets In Mexico
  Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Regional Overview
Latin America Overview
  Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2014-2025
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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