Libya Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: July 13, 2016
Pages: 76
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: LA15348380BEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Progress towards formation of a unity government offers upside risk to production from 2017. However, a fractured political and security environment, widespread damage to infrastructure and the legacy of chronic underinvestment in the sector will all serve to slow the pace of recovery. Consumption will remain heavily constrained, due to continued violence, repeated fuel and gas shortages and broader economic dislocation.

Key Trends & Latest Updates
  • Piecemeal progress in the UN-brokered peace talks towards a Libyan unity government poses upside risk to our bearish oil and gas outlook. However, a polarised political scene and the deep fragmentation of the conflict will see insecurity remain an enduring feature of the country's operating environment over the coming years.
  • Exploration will remain heavily curtailed across much of our forecast period due to continued instability and unattractive fiscal and licensing terms.
  • Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2015, and we expect this dynamic to continue into 2016. We forecast an 10.0% y-o-y decline in crude and condensates output, averaging 358,000b/d.
  • Gas output has been somewhat less affected than crude and we estimate that in 2016 gas production will remain broadly stagnant, at 12.3bcm.
  • Refineries will operate below capacity, due to both interruptions in the oil supply and the targeting of oil and gas infrastructure by opponents to the central governments.
  • The risks to our view lie largely to the upside and an improvement in Libya's political situation and resultant gains in operational stability could support a more consistent recovery in production and exports. However, this is not our core view at present.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2014-2020)
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Libya 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Libya 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Libya 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Libya 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends: Crude Oil
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025)
Structural Trends: Refined Fuels
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
  Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
  Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Libya - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Rewards
Upstream Risks
Market Overview
Libya Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Licensing Regime
  Table: Model EPSA Main Licensing Terms
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Model EPSA Main Fiscal Terms
Licensing Rounds
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Libya Oil Refineries
Oil Terminals
  Table: Libya Oil Terminals
LNG Terminals
  Table: LNG Terminals In Libya
Oil & Gas Pipelines
  Table: Libya Main Export Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players - Libya Oil & Gas Sector
  Table: Key Upstream Players
Company Profile
Latest Updates
  Table: Major Upstream Assets In Libya
Regional Overview
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
  Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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