Libya Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

Date: January 13, 2016
Pages: 107
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Despite continued progress in negotiations between the rival Libyan governments, the country's security and political outlook remains heavily clouded. This in turn will continue to dampen upstream production growth, due to the repeated targeting of oil and gas infrastructure; damage to wellhead, processing and export facilities; a lack of essential maintenance works; and chronic underinvestment in the sector. Exports will see a similarly slow recovery, with revenues further undercut by persistently low global commodity prices. The outlook on the downstream is equally bearish, with poor refining efficiencies and continued feedstock issues severely undermining overall utilisation rates.

Key Trends & Latest Updates:
  • Piecemeal progress in the UN-brokered peace talks towards a Libyan unity government poses upside risk to our bearish oil and gas outlook. However, a polarised political scene and the deep fragmentation of the conflict will see insecurity remain an enduring feature of the country's operating environment over the coming years.
  • Exploration will remain heavily curtailed across much of our forecast period due to continued instability and unattractive fiscal and licensing terms. However, we expect greater exploration in the prospective offshore plays. Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2015, and we expect this dynamic to continue into 2016. However, incremental improvements in the political and security outlook will support a y-o-y gain in crude and condensates output, averaging 517,000b/d.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2013-2019)
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Libya 2013-2018)
  Table: Oil Production (Libya 2019-2024)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Libya 2013-2018)
  Table: Gas Production (Libya 2019-2024)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2013-2018)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2019-2024)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Libya 2013-2018)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Libya 2019-2024)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2013-2018)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2019-2024)
Trade - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Crude Oil
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2013-2019)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024)
Refined Fuels
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
  Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
  Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Libya - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Rewards
Upstream Risks
Market Overview
Libya Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Licensing Regime
  Table: Model EPSA Main Licensing Terms
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Model EPSA Main Fiscal Terms
Licensing Rounds
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Libya Oil Refineries
Oil Terminals
  Table: Libya Oil Terminals
LNG Terminals
  Table: LNG Terminals In Libya
Oil & Gas Pipelines
  Table: Libya Main Export Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players - Libya Oil & Gas Sector
  Table: Key Upstream Players
Company Profile
Eni North Africa
Marathon Oil
National Oil Corporation (NOC)
OMV Of Libya
Repsol Libya
Total Libya
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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