Kenya Power Report Q3 2016

Date: July 6, 2016
Pages: 52
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Over the next decade, the Kenyan power sector will be characterised by strong growth in nonhydropower renewable capacity. A focus on geothermal will ensure a non-intermittent supply of renewable energy and enable the country to be a non-hydropower renewable outperformer in Sub-Saharan Africa. Continued investments into grid infrastructure and interconnections will enable the increase in electrification rates as well as electricity trading capacity.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
  • The development of the 700-megawatt (MW) gas-fired power plant in Mombasa has been cancelled due to concerns that surplus supply will lead to high electricity costs for both homes and businesses.
  • We maintain our forecasts from last quarter for thermal power generation in Kenya. The increase in nonhydropower renewable generation - especially non-intermittent geothermal power - appears to be crowding out thermal power investments. The cancellation of the Mombasa gas-fired power plant over fears of overcapacity driving up consumer costs seems to confirm this.
  • KenGen has stated that it will start construction of a 140MW geothermal power plant in Olkaria by the end of 2016. We have included the plant into our forecasts for 2018.
  • The Rural Electrification Authority has announced that by July 2016, it will start construction on a 55MW solar park in Garissa. The solar plant is also currently included in our forecasts for 2018.
  • We maintain our forecasts for hydropower from the previous quarter. We do not forecast any new hydropower capacity coming online over our forecast period and expect hydropower generation to remain at an annual average of between 4.3 terawatt hours (TWh) and 4.5TWh over our 10-year forecast period up until 2025.
  • Kenya's electrification rate has increased to 50% and the government is planning to increase this level to 70% by mid-2017 through the Last Mile Connectivity Project.
  • Lamu County has been connected to the national grid after having to depend on diesel-fired generators for the past 53 years.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Kenya 2015-2021)
Industry Forecast
Kenya Snapshot
  Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Kenya 2015-2020)
  Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Kenya 2020-2025)
  Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Kenya Power Forecast Scenario
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
  Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2019)
  Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2020-2025)
  Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2019)
  Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2020-2025)
Electricity Consumption
  Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2019)
  Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2020-2025)
Transmission & Distribution
  Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2014-2019)
  Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2020-2025)
  Table: Trade Data And Forecastas (Kenya 2014-2019)
  Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Country 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Sub-Saharan Africa Power Risk/Reward Index
  Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Kenya Power Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Kenya Power Projects Database
Competitive Landscape
Regional Overview
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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