Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: June 1, 2016
Pages: 83
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook for Kazakhstan's oil production, thanks to huge underground potential and the delayed Kashagan field expected to come online by 2017, with the Tengiz project forecast to start production in 2021. Our forecasts for gas and refined products consumption remain subdued for 2016 due to economic headwinds facing Kazakhstan; however we expect an uptick in growth from 2017 onwards as the macros become more favourable.

Key developments in Kazakhstan's oil & gas industry:
  • The Kazakh Energy Ministry stated that it had plans to carry out additional evaluation work on Aktoty and Kairan fields, with further exploration work also expected to be done on the Kurmangazy field in 2016.
  • We expect oil production to be 1.67mn b/d in 2016, with steady increases forecast until 2022. The risks for oil production lie to the upside, with plenty of room for expansion on a number of Kazakhstan's hydrocarbon rich fields.
  • Kazakhstan contains extensive hydrocarbon potential that continues to attract some of the world's largest oil companies, giving us reason to believe that the country's oil and gas reserves will expand over our forecast period.
  • KMG EP announced in February that it has discovered oil on the North-Eastern flank of S. Nurzhanov field. Two appraisal well are planned to be drilled in 2016-2017 and trial production is expected in 2018.
  • Our house view on Kazakhstan's economic outlook has improved somewhat, mainly on the back of an upwards revision in our oil price outlook. However private final consumption growth is forecast to be only 0.8% in real term this year keeping us bearish on fuels consumption this year.
  • The upgrade to the Chevron operated Caspian Consortium Pipeline is due to be completed by the end of 2016, boosting capacity to 1.4mn b/d.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2020)
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Kazakhstan Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Outlook
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
  Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
  Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
  Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Kazakhstan - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index - Rewards
Upstream Index - Risks
Downstream Index - Rewards
Downstream Index - Risks
Market Overview
Kazakhstan Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Kazakhstan Fiscal Regime
Licensing Regime
  Table: Kazakhstan Licensing Regime
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Major Refineries In Kazakhstan
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Company Profile
Latest Updates
  Table: Key Assets
Regional Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent
  Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
  Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
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