Japan Oil and Gas  Report Q4 2012

Date: September 12, 2012
Pages: 81
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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BMI View: Japan’s consumption of imported oil and natural gas has increased as a result of nuclear power generation losses in the wake of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Over the longer term, a reassessment of energy strategy means nuclear will play a less prominent role and, inevitably, gas will have to make up part of the shortfall. This suggests Japan will become a still bigger player in global LNG purchasing.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Japan’s Oil and Gas sector are:
  • Japanese oil consumption is expected to remain static in 2012, at around 4.48mn barrels per day (b/d). Volumes rose by an estimated 145,000b/d in 2011 following the earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March of the year, which resulted in greatly reduced nuclear generation and a significant upturn in oil- and gas-fired power generation to compensate. By 2016, the country is expected to be consuming 4.52mn b/d of oil, with demand predicted to head slightly lower to 4.46mn b/d by 2021.
  • A Japanese consortium consisting of oil companies, oil refiners, engineering firms and state-run energy researcher Japan Oil, Gas & Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) in April 2012 announced a technological breakthrough in their research on the conversion of gas into synthetic fuels. Calling their research the Japan-GTL process, the consortium promises that the breakthrough will bring down the cost of gas to liquids (GTL) conversion.
  • In January 2012, ExxonMobil said it was in talks with subsidiary TonenGeneral Sekiyu regarding the possibility of restructuring its near-US$3bn stake in the oil refiner. In June, Exxon completed the restructuring, with TonenGeneral Sekiyu purchasing shares worth US$3.9bn, effectively paring down Exxon’s stake in TonenGeneral from 50% to 22%.
  • BMI gas consumption estimates were revised upwards following the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. We expect gas demand to reach 110bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012, and demand is expected to rise steadily towards 112bcm by 2015/16 – largely in the form of imported LNG. By 2021, the country is expected to be consuming at least 114bcm of gas.
Japan’s crude oil import requirement is around 4.35mn b/d, and will remain around this level as reduced nuclear capacity leads to higher oil use in power generation. The 2016 crude oil import bill should be US$149.6bn, based on an assumed OPEC basket oil price of US$93.25 per barrel (bbl), down from the US$107.05/bbl being used by BMI for 2012. The gas import cost by 2016 is expected to be US$50.66bn, taking Japan’s combined 2016 oil and gas import bill to US$200.27bn. By 2021, based on an oil price assumption of US$91.50/bbl, Japan’s oil import bill is estimated at US$144.71bn.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Japan Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point
  Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d)
  Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Frontier Plays & Brownfields Bolster Asia's Upstream Outlook
  Table: Number Of Rigs in Operation In Asia, 2002-2012
Japan Energy Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Japan Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
  Table: Japan Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining and Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Refineries In Japan
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
LNG Terminals
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Regional And Country Risk/Reward Ratings
O&G Asia Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Asia Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Asia Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Japan Upstream Rating – Overview
Japan Upstream Rating – Rewards
Japan Upstream Rating – Risks
Japan Downstream Rating – Overview
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
  Table: Key Players In Japan’s Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Japan Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
JX Holdings
Inpex – Summary
Japex – Summary
Showa Shell – Summary
TonenGeneral Sekiyu – Summary
BP – Summary
Cosmo Oil – Summary
LNG Japan – Summary
Idemitsu Kosan – Summary
Petrobras – Summary
Tokyo Gas – Summary
Osaka Gas – Summary
Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) – Summary
Asia – Regional Appendix
  Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d)
  Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d)
  Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d)
  Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d)
  Table: Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d)
  Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d)
  Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
  Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
  Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
  Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
  Table: LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
  Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
  Table: Glossary of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
  Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
  Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
  Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
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