Japan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: May 4, 2016
Pages: 69
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: J53B90C91C7EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Slow economic growth, negative demographic trends and the growing prominence of nuclear and renewables energy will curtail Japan's long-term consumption of refined fuels and LNG. The aggressive government-led consolidation drive in the refining sector poses significant downside risk to our refining capacity forecasts, though improving run rates and more flexible production slates will allow Japan to see a small surplus in refined fuels from 2016.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
  • The government-led consolidation drive in the refining sector will see four of Japan's five largest refineries merge operations in the coming years. JX Holdings and TonenGeneral are expected to merge by April 2017, while Idemitsu Kosan and Showa Shell are set to follow likewise between October 2016 and April 2017.
  • Japan's nuclear restarts continue to progress at a gradual rate, amid strong public opposition. In March 2016, the Otsu district order issued an injunction to halt operations at Kansai Electric's No.3 and No.4 nuclear reactors, while in April 2016, the Fukuoka court upheld a previous ruling to allow Kyushu Electric's Sendai No.1 and No.2 reactors to continue to operate.
  • LNG imports will continue its downslide over the next 10 years, as slower economic growth, negative demographic trends and rising prominence of alternative energy sources weigh on demand. We forecast net LNG imports to fall by 8.9% over 2016-2025.
  • Slower domestic demand growth will be unmatched by improving run rates at existing refineries, which will allow Japan to become a small net exporter of refined fuels from this year. This will negatively affect the likes of South Korea, India, Malaysia and the Middle East, which are Japan's largest suppliers of refined fuels.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Japan 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Japan 2014-2019)
  Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Japan 2020-2025)
Upstream Projects
  Table: Japan - Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Japan 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Japan 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Japan 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Japan 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Japan 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Japan 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Japan 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Japan 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Japan 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade: Latest Updates
Crude Oil Trade: Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025)
Fuels Trade: Latest Updates
Fuels Trade: Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Japan 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Japan - Risk/Reward Index
Japan Upstream Index - Overview
Japan Downstream Index - Overview
Industry Risk Reward Index
  Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook
  Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines
  Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Japan Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Refineries In Japan
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
LNG Terminals
  Table: LNG Import Terminals In Japan
Oil Terminals/Ports
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Key Players In Japan's Oil & Gas Sector
Regional Overview
Asia Regional Overview
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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