Iran Power Report Q3 2011

Date: July 22, 2011
Pages: 36
US$ 1,175.00
Report type: Strategic Report
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The newly published Iran Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country’s power consumption will increase from an estimated 155TWh in 2010 to 204TWh by the end of the forecast period, assuming 2.8% average annual growth. After power industry usage and system losses, we see surplus supply rising from the theoretical 40TWh level seen in 2010 to 49TWh by 2020, assuming 2.6% average annual growth in power generation during the period.

Iran’s power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 195TWh, having risen 4.8% from the 2009 level. BMI is forecasting an average 2.2% annual increase to 217TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to grow by 1.6% per annum during the period to 2015, with growth expected to accelerate later in the decade.

Gas will remain the dominant source of electricity supply, with market share set to rise from an estimated 82% of generation in 2010 to 85% by 2015. Gas-fired generation is expected to rise from an estimated 160TWh to 185TWh over the same period and, by 2020, is likely to have reached 219TWh, representing 87% of total generation. New gas-fired projects include two 1.04GW combined cycle plants in the south, a 1.3GW combined cycle plant at Arak, a 1GW facility in Bandar Abbas, and a 1GW combined-cycle plant being built by the Tehran Regional Electricity Company in Qom.

The stand-off between the UN and Iran has not halted the Iranian nuclear energy programme. The Iranian government asserts that the programme’s goal is to develop nuclear power plants, and that it will have 6GW of capacity by the middle of 2011. Reactor testing has been taking place and, in early June 2011, Iran was insisting that commercial operations at its first plant were imminent. BMI is assuming nuclear generation will reach 5TWh by the end of 2011, remaining around this level in 2012 and creeping higher to 6TWh by 2013. New plant could swell the nuclear contribution later in the decade. But we have assumed just the one plant in operation during the forecast period.

Iran holds eighth place above Algeria and Kuwait in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating. This is largely a reflection of its market size. The power sector is not competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is unattractive and the risk outlook is suffering thanks to the controversy over the country’s nuclear energy programme.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Iran Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
  Table: Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh)
  Table: Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh)
  Table: Total Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW)
Regional Overview
  Table: Total Generation Data
  Table: Total Consumption Data
  Table: Electrcity Generation Capacity Data
Market Overview
Regulation And Competition
Power Transmission
Business Environment
Middle East And Africa Power Business Environment Ratings
  Table: Regional Power Business Environment Ratings
Iran’s Power Rating
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Iran Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh)
  Table: Iran Total Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh)
  Table: Iran Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh)
  Table: Iran Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 20012-2020 (TWh)
  Table: Iran Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh)
  Table: Iran Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 20012-2020 (TWh)
  Table: Iran Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh)
  Table: Iran Total Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 20012-2020 (TWh)
  Table: Iran Consumption by Energy Sector Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh)
  Table: Iran Consumption by Energy Sector Long-Term Forecasts, 20012-2020 (TWh)
  Table: Iran Electrcity Generation Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW)
  Table: Iran Electrcity Generation Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (MW)
Iran’s Power Outlook
Nuclear Energy
Renewable Energy
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Competitive Landscape
Glossary Of Terms
Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Power Industry
Cross Checks
Sources 36
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