Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: June 22, 2016
Pages: 117
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Regulatory uncertainty and low oil prices will impede exploration in Indonesia. Though the refinery upgrade and newbuild projects draw interest from national oil companies, they are progressing slowly and Indonesia will remain a large importer of refined fuels.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
  • We believe that the proposed amendment to Indonesia's oil and gas law will create regulatory uncertainty. Together with the low oil price environment, it will serve to dampen investor interest in the upcoming licensing round in 2016.
  • We have revised up our forecast for Indonesia's 2016 crude oil and gas production, as higher than expected production ramp-up at several major projects will offset mature field decline. Production will fall from 2017 for crude oil and from 2018 for gas.
  • We have downgraded Indonesia's refining capacity forecast. We believe that delays to the upgrading of the Cilacap refinery, the first among a pipeline of refinery upgrade and newbuild projects, will push back successive projects.
  • The weak oil price environment is a boon for Indonesia's refined products consumption. Combined with a bright macroeconomic outlook, we maintain our forecast for the country's refined products consumption to increase at an average rate of 1.8% per annum over the next decade.
  • Indonesia's gas consumption will increase at an average rate of 4.1% per annum over the next decade, as a result of a greater shift to gas-fired electricity generation in the power sector. We highlight upside risks to our forecast from greater gas usage in power, transportation and the residential sectors.
  • Due to declining crude oil production, Indonesia will still turn from a net exporter of crude oil to a net importer in 2020, despite our downwardly revised forecast for Indonesia's refining capacity.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2020)
Industry Forecast
Uptream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Distribution Of CBM In Indonesia
  Table: CBM Block Holders
  Table: Shale Targets In Indonesia
  Table: Gas Pricing In Indonesia (2011)
Upstream Projects
  Table: Indonesia - Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Indonesia 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Indonesia 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Indonesia 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Indonesia 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Indonesia 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Indonesia 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Indonesia 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: National Infrastructure Development Plan 2016
  Table: Gas Consumption (Indonesia 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Indonesia 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Indonesia 2014-2019)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Indonesia 2020-2025)
Fuels Trade
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Indonesia 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Indonesia 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Challenges Facing Major Pre-FID LNG Export Projects In Indonesia
  Table: BMI Japan Korea Marker Forecast
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Indonesia 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Indonesia 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook
  Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines
  Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Indonesia - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index - Overview
Upstream Index - Rewards
Upstream Index - Risks
Downstream Index - Overview
Market Overview
Indonesia Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Indonesia - Upstream Tax Regime
Licensing Regime
  Table: Indonesia - Licensing Regime
  Table: New Local Content Requirement
Licensing Rounds
  Table: 2015 Licensing Round
  Table: 2014 First Petroleum Licensing Round
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Refineries In Indonesia
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/Ports/Storage Units
  Table: Crude Oil & Oil Products Terminals In Indonesia
Oil Pipelines
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
  Table: LNG Liquefaction Terminals In Indonesia
LNG Regasification Terminals
  Table: LNG Regasification Terminals In Indonesia
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Company Profile
Latest Updates
  Table: Major Upstream Assets In Indonesia
  Table: Major Downstream Assets In Indonesia
  Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Regional Overview
Asia Regional Overview
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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