Greece Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011

Date: September 22, 2011
Pages: 61
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
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The latest Greece Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.97% of regional oil consumption by 2015, while making a negligible contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall regional oil demand will be an estimated 12.71mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 and is set to reach 13.17mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production is an estimated 3.83mn b/d in 2011, falling potentially to just 3.34mn b/d in 2015. Regional net imports are set to rise from an estimated 8.88mn b/d in 2011 to 9.83mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer.

In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region will have consumed an estimated 457bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011, with demand of 498bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.0% growth. Production of an estimated 238cm in 2011 is set to rise to 248bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2011 level of 219bcm to some 250bcm by the end of the period. Greece's share of gas consumption in 2011 will have been an estimated 0.72%, while it makes no meaningful contribution to production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 0.74%.

Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be 1.65%, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.

Greek real GDP is assumed by BMI to decrease by 3.1% in 2011. We are forecasting 0.6% average annual GDP growth in 2011-2015. While there is still some limited scope for medium- to long-term growth in domestic oil production, there is considerable uncertainty over the scale and the timing of new field development. Meanwhile, the country’s oil consumption is expected to reach 391,000b/d in 2015. By 2015, our estimates suggest gas consumption of at least 3.7bcm, all of which will be imported.

Between 2011 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Greek oil and gas liquids consumption of 23.3%, with volumes rising steadily from an estimated 353,000b/d in 2011 to 436,000b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2011 level of 3.3bcm to 4.2bcm by 2020, relying on pipeline and LNG imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

According to BMI’s country risk team, Greece’s long-term political risk score is 77.5, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.1 and the global average of 63.0. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 57.5, below the Developed Markets average of 67.3, and above the global average of 52.9. Greece has a partly privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, featuring domestic companies and foreign exploration companies. Downstream oil is dominated by partly state-owned Hellenic Petroleum (HP). International oil companies (IOCs) have largely sold their operations. The gas and power sectors are still heavily state-influenced.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Greece Political SWOT
Greece Economic SWOT
Greece Business Environment SWOT
Greece Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
  Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2008-2015
  Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d), 2008-2015
Oil: Downstream
  Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2008-2015
Gas Supply And Demand
  Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm), 2008-2015
  Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm), 2008-2015
Liquefied Natural Gas
  Table: Developed Markets LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm), 2008-2015
Greece Business Environment
Market Orientation
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Liquefied Natural Gas
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
  Table: Greece Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2013
Other Energy
  Table: Greece Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2013
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Refineries In Greece
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Storage Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Greece – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
  Table: Key Players – Greece Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Hellenic Petroleum
DESFA – Summary
Motor Oil (Hellas) – Summary
Gas Supply Companies (EPAs) – Summary
Energean Oil & Gas – Summary
Others – Summary
Former IOC Players
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
  Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2013-2020
Regional Oil Supply
  Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d), 2013-2020
Regional Refining Capacity
  Table: Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2013-2020
Regional Gas Demand
  Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm), 2013-2020
Regional Gas Supply
  Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm) , 2013-2020
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
  Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
  Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
  Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
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