Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: June 29, 2016
Pages: 83
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: With the start up of new production at TEN and Sankofa fields, as well as increasing output from the country's flagship Jubilee field, we expect Ghana to double its crude and gas production over the next five years. We note an upside risk to our projections arising from the ongoing exploration activities over the medium term, but the country's output levels have been suffering from recurring technical issues at the production facilities. Our outlook for Ghana's downstream sector is more subdued due to ageing and inefficient infrastructure, and we expect only minor production additions over the coming decade.

The main trends and developments in Ghana's oil and gas sector are:
  • Between 2015 and 2025, we forecast Ghana's oil reserves to decrease by 7.4% from an estimated 700 million barrels (mn bbl) to 648mn bbl. However, Ghana boasts significant, underexplored acreage offshore and we acknowledge a strong upside risk from continued exploration.
  • Ghana's crude oil and liquids production stood at an estimated 109,200b/d in 2015 and we forecast this figure to nearly double to 216,720b/d by the end of 2020. However, recurring technical issues at the floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel could lower the expected output from the country's key producing Jubilee field.
  • We expect Ghana's current refining capacity to remain stable at 45,000b/d over the coming decade. In 2015, Ghana produced just 9,000b/d of refined fuels due to outages and low utilisation rates at the TOR. We anticipate the output to increase gradually in the next 10 years due to ongoing maintenance and upgrades at the facility.
  • In 2015, estimated refined products consumption in Ghana stood at 78,320b/d, marking a 7.3% y-o-y increase. Over the coming decade, we forecast the consumption to increase by an average of 4.2% per annum, driven mostly by greater demand in diesel and motor gasoline.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Tano Basin Blocks Exploration, 2007-2013
Upstream Projects
  Table: Ghana Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ghana 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ghana 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Crude Oil
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
  Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
  Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Ghana - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index
Downstream Index
Market Overview
Ghana Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Overview
Licensing Regime
  Table: Ghana Model Petroleum Agreement Main Licensing Terms
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Ghana Model Petroleum Agreement Main Licensing Terms
Licensing Rounds
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Ghana Oil Refineries
Oil Storage Facilities
  Table: Ghana Main Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Trade Facilities
  Table: Ghana Main Oil Trade Facilities
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players - Ghana Energy Sector
  Table: Key Upstream Players
  Table: Key Downstream Player
Company Profile
Tullow Oil
Latest Updates
  Table: Major Company Upstream Assets in Ghana
  Table: Key Financial Data
Latest Updates
  Table: GNPC Major Upstream Assets In Ghana
  Table: Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
  Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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