Germany Power Report 2010

Date: July 22, 2010
Pages: 44
US$ 1,175.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

Download PDF Leaflet

The new Germany Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 8.59% of power generation in developed markets by 2013, while retaining an electricity export capability. BMI’s developed markets power generation estimate for 2009 is 7,152 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a decrease of 4.8% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 7,745TWh between 2010 and 2014, an increase of 6.0%.

BMI estimate thermal power generation in 2009 was 4,199TWh, accounting for 58.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 4,439TWh, implying 5.7% growth that leaves the market share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 57.3% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Germany’s thermal generation in 2009 was 346TWh, or 8.25% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 8.19% of thermal generation.

Oil is the dominant fuel in Germany, accounting for 39.3% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 24.5%, gas at 24.2%, nuclear energy at 10.5% and hydro-power with a 1.4% share of PED. Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 3,998mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 6.5% growth in 2010-2014. Germany’s 2009 market share of 7.89% is set to rise slightly to 8.20% by 2014. Germany’s 135TWh of 2009 nuclear demand is forecast to decline to 130TWh by 2014, with its share of the nuclear market in developed markets falling from 8.16% to 7.55% over the period. BMI is now forecasting German real GDP growth averaging 1.72% per annum between 2010 and 2014, although the 2010 forecast is an increase of 2.00%. Population is expected to contract from 82.1mn to 81.8mn over the period, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to rise by 2% and 5% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to decrease from an estimated 528TWh in 2009 to 557TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a theoretical surplus rising from an estimated 69TWh in 2009 to 108TWh in 2014, assuming 2.2% average annual growth in generation in 2010-2014.

Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in German electricity generation of 5.6%, which is bottom of the range for the developed markets. This equates to a decline of 0.8% in 2014-2019, compared with growth of 6.4% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to fall from 10.4% in 2010-2014 to a contraction of 0.9% during 2014-2019, representing 9.4% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 95% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to fall by 12% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear demand falling by 19%. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Germany Political SWOT
Germany Economic SWOT
Industry Overview
  Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014
Developed Markets
  Table: Developed Markets Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
  Table: Developed Markets Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
  Table: Developed Markets Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
  Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm)
  Table: Developed Markets Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
  Table: Developed Markets Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh)
Market Overview – Germany
Primary Energy Demand
Power Generation
Power Consumption
Regulation And Competition
Power Transmission
Industry Forecast Scenario
Germany Power Outlook
Nuclear Energy
Renewable Energy
Power Costs
  Table: Germany’s Power Sector, 2007-2014
  Table: Germany’s Thermal Power, 2007-2014
  Table: Germany’s Non-Thermal Power, 2007-2014
  Table: Germany’s Power Costs, 2007-2014
Assumptions And Methodology
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Power Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Germany – Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Snapshot
  Table: Global Power Forecasts, 2012-2019
Regional Outlook
  Table: Developed Markets Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
  Table: Developed Markets Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe)
  Table: Developed Markets Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
  Table: Developed Markets Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
  Table: Developed Markets Nuclear Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
Germany Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
EnBW Energie Baden-W?rttemberg AG (EnBW)
Company Monitor
Market Position
Latest Developments
Market Position
Latest Developments
Country Snapshot: Germany Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
  Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
  Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
  Table: Education, 2002-2005
  Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
  Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
  Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
  Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Power Industry
Cross Checks
Skip to top

Germany Power Report Q2 2015 US$ 1,295.00 Apr, 2015 · 89 pages
Germany Power Report Q3 2016 US$ 1,295.00 Jul, 2016 · 92 pages
Germany Power Report Q4 2015 US$ 1,295.00 Sep, 2015 · 86 pages

Ask Your Question

Germany Power Report 2010
Company name*:
Contact person*:
Request invoice
Your enquiry:
Please click on a Check Box below to confirm you are not a robot: