France Power Report 2010

Date: July 22, 2010
Pages: 40
US$ 1,175.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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The new France Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 7.77% of power generation in developed markets by 2014, and to remain a net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. BMI’s developed markets power generation estimate for 2009 is 7,152 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a decrease of 4.8% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 7,745TWh between 2010 and 2014, representing an increase of 6.0%.

Thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated by BMI at 4,199TWh, accounting for 58.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 4,439TWh, implying 5.7% growth that leaves the market share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 57.3% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. France’s thermal generation in 2009 was 53.9TWh, or 1.28% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 1.19% of thermal generation.

Nuclear energy is the dominant fuel in France, accounting for 38.4% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 36.2%, gas at 15.9%, coal with a 4.2% share of PED and hydro-electric power with 5.4%. Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 3,998mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 6.5% growth in 2010-2014. France’s 2009 market share of 6.58% is set to rise to 6.63% by 2014. France’s 411TWh of nuclear demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 460TWh by 2014, with its share of the nuclear market in developed markets rising from 24.83% to 26.73% over the period. BMI is now forecasting French real GDP growth averaging 1.80% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 forecast being an increase of 1.60%. Population is expected to expand from 64.2mn to 65.4mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to be up 4% and 6% respectively by 2014. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 431TWh in 2009 to 469TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a theoretical supply surplus of around 130TWh, assuming 2.1% average annual growth (2010-2014) in generation.

Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in French electricity generation of 15.0%, which is in the middle of the range for the developed markets. This equates to 8.0% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 6.6% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to fall from 3.9% in 2010-2014 to 3.8%, representing 7.8% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 27% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast fall by 8% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear demand rising by 13%. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
France Political SWOT
France Economic SWOT
Industry Overview
  Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014
Developed Markets
  Table: Developed Markets Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
  Table: Developed Markets Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
  Table: Developed Markets Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
  Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm)
  Table: Developed Markets Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
  Table: Developed Markets Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh)
Market Overview – France
Primary Energy Demand
Power Generation
Power Consumption
Regulation And Competition
Power Transmission
Industry Forecast Scenario
France Power Outlook
Nuclear Energy
Renewable Energy
Power Costs
  Table: French Power Industry, 2007-2014
  Table: French Thermal Power, 2007-2014
  Table: French Non-Thermal Power, 2007-2014
  Table: French Power Costs, 2007-2014
Assumptions And Methodology
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Power Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: France – Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Competitive Landscape
Electricit? de France (EdF)
Endesa France/SNET
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Snapshot
  Table: Global Power Forecasts, 2012-2019
Regional Outlook
  Table: Developed Markets Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
  Table: Developed Markets Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe)
  Table: Developed Markets Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
  Table: Developed Markets Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
  Table: Developed Markets Nuclear Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
France Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Company Monitor
Electricit? de France (EdF)
Market Position
Latest Developments
Country Snapshot: France Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
  Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
  Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
  Table: Education, 2002-2005
  Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
  Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005
  Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
  Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Power Industry
Cross Checks
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