Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: May 18, 2016
Pages: 83
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: E2A88E1F482EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Equatorial Guinea's oil output will see smaller decline rates over the coming years on the back of several smaller projects. However, maturing fields and a lack of new significant discoveries will continue to push the production volumes to the downside over our entire forecast period. Ophir's Fortuna FLNG project provides the most important upside to the country's gas production and net exports. While the company targets a FID by end-2016, we highlight risks to the project due to slowing global demand for LNG and the large wave of LNG projects coming online within the next few years.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
  • Equatorial Guinea is forecast to see its oil and gas reserves stagnate or increase slightly over our forecast period to 2025 owing to maturing fields and lack of new significant discoveries. There is upside potential coming from a string of recent exploration activities offshore, as well as the new reduced-oil price environment attracting investors to lower-risk and lower-cost ventures such as Equatorial Guinea. This is reflected in our slightly improved oil reserves outlook this quarter for the coming years.
  • In mid-January 2015, the Equatoguinean government ratified the production sharing contract for Block EG-06, signed with ExxonMobil and GEPetrol.
  • We expect a smaller decline in production over 2016-2017 relative to recent years thanks to increased production from the Aseng and Alen projects and the Alba B3 Compression unit. However, the oil sector in Equatorial Guinea continues to face secular decline. In the absence of significant improvements in the fiscal terms on offer and broader regulatory stability, the country will be unable to draw investment into its prospective deepwater acreage.
  • This quarter we have pushed back first gas production from the Fortuna floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project to 2020 from our previous estimate of 2019 based on Ophir's updated FID and first production date forecasts. The agreement with Schlumberger fell through in early 2016 and Ophir is now looking for alternative financing sources leading to delays in FID and first production at the project.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Equatorial Guinea Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
Refined Products Trade Forecasts
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Equatorial Guinea 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
  Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
  Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Equatorial Guinea Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index - Overview
Downstream Index - Overview
Market Overview
Equatorial Guinea Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Equatorial Guinea - Upstream Tax Regime
Licensing Regime
  Table: Equatorial Guinea - Contracts And Licensing Regime
Licensing Rounds
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Downstream Projects
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals And Ports
LNG Terminals
  Table: Equatorial Guinea LNG Infrastructure
Oil And Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Key Players - Equatorial Guinea Energy Sector
Company Profile
Latest Updates
  Table: Major Upstream Assets In Equatorial Guinea
Regional Overview
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
  Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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