Ecuador Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Date: September 3, 2016
Pages: 86
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: E09311BC2B5EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Ecuador's upstream sector will suffer from the broader industry downturn through the remainder of the decade, but its downstream sector will shift to net exporter status by 2018. Our modest growth forecast is as a result of increased private sector participation, but continued uncertainty regarding greenfield investments temper our enthusiasm.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
  • We maintained our forecast for Ecuadorian liquids production to account for increased investment into its mature oil assets. We now expect the country to return to growth in 2016 as oilfield services (OFS) providers boost output from existing projects.
  • The controversial ITT heavy oil field project advanced in July following the spudding of Petroamazonas' first well in the Tiputini field in April. Located on the fringe of the Yasuni National Park, the development of Block 43 in the Amazon rainforest has continued despite strong grassroots and international opposition to the project given the environmentally sensitive nature of the area. In July, the government announced the field held more that 750mn bbl more than originally expected, encouraging our more optimistic reserve outlook. First oil from the area is expected before the end of the year, with production expected to reach 20,000b/d by December.
  • The start-up of the modernised Esmeraldas refinery in Q415 is weighing on Ecuador's net crude exports as imported supplies are used to feed the facility.
  • With respect to gas, activity remains centred on bolstering output from Block 6 in the Gulf of Guayaquil. While there has been some investment into further exploration, we believe production of natural gas will remain minimal such that output will begin to slip toward the mid-point of our forecast period.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Ecuador - Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade: Latest Updates
Crude Oil Trade: Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Fuels Trade: Latest Updates
Fuels Trade: Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
Composite RRI: Continued Adjustments Level Off Rankings
Upstream RRI: Steady Scores Mask Forthcoming Shifts
  Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Reinforce Fuels Deficit
  Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Ecuador - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index
Downstream Index
Market Overview
Ecuador Energy Market Overview
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Refineries In Ecuador
Service Stations
Oil Pipelines
Oil Storage
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Key Upstream Players
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Latest Updates
  Table: Major Upstream Assets in Ecuador
  Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Regional Overview
Latin America Overview
  Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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