Ecuador Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: May 4, 2016
Pages: 84
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: E8FC44E2191EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Ecuador's upstream sector will suffer from the broader industry downturn through the remainder of the decade, but its downstream sector is likely to shift to net exporter status by 2018. We hold a modest growth outlook for the country as a result of increasingly limited upstream prospects and continued uncertainty regarding the future of Ecuador's largest untapped oil field.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts:
  • We have upgraded our forecast for Ecuadorian liquids production to account for increased investment into its mature oil assets. We now expect the country to return to growth in 2016 as oilfield services (OFS) providers boost output from existing projects.
  • The continued practice of non-intervention by OPEC members will maintain elevated production levels and sustain oil price weakness over the next year. While profits within the sector will suffer, we believe the government will meet its external debt commitments over the next year owing to structural changes within the country's domestic economy.
  • The controversial ITT heavy oil field project began in April, with Petroamazonas spudding its first well in the Tiputini field on the fringe of the Yasuni National Park. Development of Block 43 began from the Tiputini C drilling pad in the Amazon rainforest despite strong grassroots and international opposition to the project given the environmentally sensitive nature of the area. First oil from the area is expected before the end of the year, with production expected to reach 20,000b/d by December.
  • The start-up of the modernised Esmeraldas refinery in Q415 will weigh on Ecuador's net crude exports as imported supplies are used to feed the facility.
  • With respect to gas, what little activity there is remains centred on bolstering output from Block 6 in the Gulf of Guayaquil. While there has been some investment into further exploration, we believe production of natural gas will remain minimal such that output will begin to slip toward the mid-point of our forecast period.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Ecuador - Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade: Latest Updates
Crude Oil Trade: Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Fuels Trade: Latest Updates
Fuels Trade: Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
  Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
  Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Ecuador - Risk/Reward Index
Ecuador Upstream Index
Ecuador Downstream Index
Market Overview
Ecuador Energy Market Overview
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Refineries In Ecuador
Service Stations
Oil Pipelines
Oil Storage
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Key Upstream Players
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
  Table: Major Upstream Assets in Ecuador
  Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Regional Overview
Latin America Overview
  Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2014-2025
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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