Congo Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011

Date: September 22, 2011
Pages: 52
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: C935D0EE601EN

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The latest Republic of Congo Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.35% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 2.57% of supply. African regional oil use is put by BMI at 3.61mn barrels a day (b/d) in 2010. It should average 3.59mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.10mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 10.74mn b/d in 2010. After dropping to an estimated 9.66mn b/d in 2011 because of the loss of Libyan volumes, it is set to rise to 12.91mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. This total rose to 7.13mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.80mn b/d by 2015. Nigeria has the greatest production growth potential, with Angolan exports also set to climb significantly.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed 124.1bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 165.2bcm forecast for 2015. Production of 213.7bcm in 2010 should reach 300.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from 89.5bcm to 134.9bcm in 2015. In 2011, Congo will have consumed an estimated 0.77% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 1.21% by 2015. It will have contributed an estimated 0.46% to 2011 regional gas production and by 2015 will account for 0.67% of supply.

Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.

The Republic of Congo (RoC)’s real GDP is forecast by BMI to rise by an estimated 5.90% in 2011 and we assume average annual growth of 3.08% from 2011-2015. We see oil demand rising from an estimated 11,400b/d in 2011 to 14,400b/d in 2015. State oil company Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs). Around a third of the oil produced goes directly to the government and is sold by SNPC on behalf of the state. Thanks to higher recent IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to peak in 2011 at 360,000b/d, before easing to 332,000b/d in 2015. Gas production should reach 2.0bcm by 2014/15. Consumption is expected to track the production trend.

Between 2011 and 2020, we are forecasting a decrease in Congolese oil and gas liquids production of 16.7%, with volumes falling to 300,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2011 and 2020 is set to increase by 58%, with growth holding steady at an assumed 5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 18,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 3bcm by the end of the period. With demand moving in line, there is unlikely to be any need for imports or potential for net exports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

RoC is ranked fourth in BMI’s composite Risk/Reward Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now takes shares fifth place with Egypt in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. The county’s score benefits from reasonable oil and gas output growth prospects, respectable reserves to production ratios (RPR) and relatively attractive licensing terms. The risk environment is shaky, but this is hardly uncommon in Africa. RoC is ranked third in the league table in BMI’s updated downstream ratings, in spite of low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand and likely refining capacity expansion. The growth outlook for oil consumption and the country’s low retail site intensity are strong suits.
Executive Summary
Regional Market Overview
Oil Supply and Demand
  Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2008-2015 (000b/d)
  Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2008-2015 (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
  Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2008-2015 (000b/d)
Gas Supply and Demand
  Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm)
  Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2008-2015 (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
  Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2008-2015 (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Composite Scores
  Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
  Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings
Congo Upstream Rating – Overview
Congo Upstream Rating – Rewards
Congo Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
  Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings
Congo Downstream Rating – Overview
Congo Downstream Rating – Rewards
Congo Downstream Rating – Risks
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues And Import Costs
  Table: Republic Of Congo – Oil And Gas, 2008-2015
Other Energy
  Table: Republic Of Congo – Other Energy, 2007-2014
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil and Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
  Table: Key Players In The Republic Of Congo’s Energy Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
  Table: Key Upstream Players
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Total Congo
Societe Nationale Des Petroles Du Congo – Summary
Perenco – Summary
CORAF – Summary
Lundin Petroleum – Summary
PA Resources – Summary
Murphy Oil – Summary
Vitol – Summary
Maurel et Prom – Summary
SOCO International – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
  Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2013-2020 (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
  Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2013-2020 (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
  Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2013-2020 (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
  Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2013-2020 (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
  Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2013-2020 (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross Checks
Oil And Gas Ratings Methodology
  Table: Structure Of BMI’s Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings
  Table: BMI’s Upstream Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings – Methodology
  Table: BMI’s Downstream Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings – Methodology
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