Colombia Power Report Q2 2016

Date: March 16, 2016
Pages: 58
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: C46E43B514BEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Venezuela's suspension of natural gas exports to Colombia will increase pressure on the Colombian power system in 2016 as the country ramps up thermal generation to weather the drought brought on by El Niño. This development has prompted us to downgrade our forecast for gas-fired power generation in Colombia in 2016 and it could lead to the government hiking electricity tariffs for all end users to ensure oil-fired generators remain financially viable amid higher fuel costs.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
  • The impacts of the drought created by the El Niño weather phenomenon will be the main driver of developments in the Colombian power market in 2016. We expect a sharp fall in hydropower generation in 2015-2016, which has forced additional diesel and natural gas-fired power plants to be dispatched. The availability of excess thermal capacity to be used during periods of poor hydrology and plans to import natural gas should both allow Colombia to avoid experiencing power cuts, albeit narrowly.
  • Due to a lack of domestic feedstock to satisfy the growing demand from power generators, Colombia had started importing natural gas from Venezuela from January 2016. However, in January 2016 Venezuela halted the exports, citing climate factors, as well as the need to generate electricity. In February 2016 Minister of Mines and Energy Tomás González Estrada, announced the country will import natural gas from Ecuador instead.
  • The government is reportedly considering introducing an extraordinary hike on electricity tariffs paid by all consumers in the country. This would allow it to compensate the thermal generation plants that make their capacity available during the drought. Some of these have struggled to operate in the current crisis, as the price they are paid is lower than the costs they incur when running on diesel - more expensive than the lacking natural gas.
  • The Government finally sold its majority stake in Isagen in January to Canada's Brookfield Asset Management for COP6.49 tr (Brookfield valued the sale at USD2.2 bn) after years of delays. However, the sale received widespread criticismand in February 2016 and Colombia's attorney general's office opened a preliminary investigation into Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas for supposed irregularities in privatisation of the company.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Colombia 2015-2021)
Industry Forecast
Colombia Snapshot
  Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Colombia 2015-2020)
  Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Colombia 2020-2025)
  Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Colombia Power Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
  Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025)
  Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025)
Electricity Consumption
  Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025)
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
  Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025)
  Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Macri's Planned Power Policy Reforms
  Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100
Colombia Power Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Colombia Power Projects Database
  Table: Colombia - top 10 power projects by capacity
Competitive Landscape
Interconexion Electrica (ISA)
Empresas Públicas de Medellín (EPM)
Union Fenosa/EPSA
Empresa de Energía de Bogotá (EEB)
Company Profile
Interconexión Eléctrica SA (ISA)
Regional Overview
Latin America Power: Key Themes For 2016
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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