Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Date: September 14, 2016
Pages: 110
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Our outlook for Colombia's oil and gas sector remains downbeat as lower oil prices are weighing on the development of upstream and downstream projects by national and international investors. As such, further expansion of the sector will become increasingly dependent on state-owned Ecopetrol. While the recent government's peace deal with FARC rebels should improve the operating environment, we note the continued risk of attacks on oil and gas infrastructure due to the presence of other guerrilla groups.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
  • In August 2016, Colombia's national oil company Ecopetrol said it will intensify exploration activities in the country and plans to drill 80 new wells until the end of 2016 on top of 25 wells which have been drilled already in 2016. Most of the new wells will be located in Rubiales and Castilla fields.
  • International oil companies in Colombia are continuing to face strong opposition against unconventional oil and gas exploration using fracking. In August 2016, the media reported about another large protest in Valparaiso.
  • According to the country's Mines and Energy Ministry, the production levels declined to 888,000b/d in June 2016, marking a 12% year-on-year decline.
  • This quarter we have further downgraded our 2016 production forecast due to persisting attacks on the country's mid-stream infrastructure. We now project crude oil and condensates output to decrease by 8.1% to 924,510b/d. Other liquids are forecast to add another 27,410b/d to that figure.
  • We have slightly lowered our forecasts for Colombia's gas production as the country's national oil company is focusing primarily on the oil sector, while the private investment into the gas sector is declining. We now expect gas output to decline by 4.0% year-on-year to 9.4bcm in 2016. By 2025, we expect the country's gas output to fall to 8.6bcm.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Colombia - Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Colombia 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
Refined Products
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
Composite RRI: Continued Adjustments Level Off Rankings
Upstream RRI: Steady Scores Mask Forthcoming Shifts
  Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Reinforce Fuels Deficit
  Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Colombia Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index
Downstream Index
Market Overview
Colombia Energy Market Overview
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
  Table: Royalty Rates
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
  Table: Refineries In Colombia
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players - Colombian Oil & Gas Sector
Company Profile
Empresa Colombiana de PetrĂ³leos (Ecopetrol)
Latest Updates
  Table: Major Upstream Assets In Colombia
  Table: Key Financial Metrics (USDmn)
Pacific Exploration & Production
  Table: E&P Subsidiaries
  Table: Major Upstream Assets In Colombia
  Table: Key Financials, USDmn
Regional Overview
Latin America Overview
  Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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