Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: June 8, 2016
Pages: 107
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Colombia's energy sector has reached an inflection point. While the past decade saw strong production growth due to improvements in the business and security environment, we caution the country will experience downward pressure on oil and gas production over the next decade. The tendency toward smaller finds, as well as continued pipeline attacks will decrease private investor interest in Colombia's resources. Further, sustained lower oil prices have threatened the development of upstream and downstream projects by national and international investors.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
  • Projects targeting Colombian oil will fail to achieve growth this year due to continued unprofitability in the upstream market. On April 21, the country's Mines and Energy Ministry (Minminas) announced crude production in the country had fallen by 4.0% m-o-m in March to 916,000b/d. This was the sharpest monthly decline since July 2015, when a series of pipeline attacks shuttered supplies.
  • National oil company (NOC) Ecopetrol, which operates approximately two-thirds of the market, announced further reductions to its capex plan for the year on April 27, from USD4.8bn to a range of USD3.0-3.4bn. Having already planned the sharpest spending declines in the region prior to the announcement, this reduction represents an estimated 60.0% decline in its capex versus 2015 and highlights the unprofitable nature of the NOC's portfolio.
  • Progress at the bilateral peace talks between the government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) insurgent group has brought the number of attacks on pipelines down over the past year, falling from 225 in 2013 to 80 in 2015. However, other armed groups continue to strike key midstream infrastructure including the smaller Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) group which attacked the 305km Transandino Pipeline on February 16, the 780km Caño Limón pipeline in March 14 and again on May 18.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Colombia - Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Colombia 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
Refined Products
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
  Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
  Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Colombia Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index
Downstream Index
Market Overview
Colombia Energy Market Overview
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
  Table: Royalty Rates
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
  Table: Refineries In Colombia
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players - Colombian Oil & Gas Sector
Company Profile
Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos (Ecopetrol)
Latest Updates
  Table: Major Upstream Assets in Colombia
  Table: Key Financial Metrics (USDmn)
Pacific Exploration & Production
  Table: E&P Subsidiaries
  Table: Major Upstream Assets In Colombia
  Table: Key Financials, USDmn
Regional Overview
Latin America Overview
  Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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