China Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Date: August 10, 2016
Pages: 115
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: C8F0306F086EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China's upstream investment focus is shifting to natural gas, as the government's goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and preference for a cleaner energy mix reduce the appeal of investing in oil plays, which are becoming increasingly more costly to develop as onshore reserves mature. Despite slowing demand, China will remain a large consumer of both crude oil and refined fuels, driven by stockpiling and expansion of its already sizeable vehicle fleet.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
  • China's crude oil production is set fall by 6.0% between 2016 and 2020, as low oil prices, natural declines at mature onshore fields and shifting policy focus in favour of natural gas drag on overall output.
  • In contrast, the outlook is more positive for gas, as we expect output to grow by more than 18.0% over the next five years, as SOEs step up gas developments to abide by national directives. Longer-term growth hinges on the realisation of China's significant unconventionals potential.
  • China is set to add about 1.6mn b/d of new refining capacity over the next five years, though heavy underutilisation of existing capacity indicates substantial scope for downsizing.
  • An apparent oversupply of refined fuels such as gasoline and diesel will hinder near-term crude imports, though stockpiling requirements and falling production will see off-take rebound in the medium-to-long term. The granting of additional import licenses to the independent teapot refineries will also provide a key support to demand.
  • Gradual liberalisation of the LNG trade market will allow smaller, independent players to participate in LNG imports, posing upside risk to our already buoyant gas imports outlook for China. However, the expected ramp-up in import volumes from Turkmenistan and Russia will see pipeline gas maintain its dominance over LNG.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
China - 13th Five Year Plan: NPC Sets Stage For Deeper Energy Sector Reforms
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Key Offshore JVs
  Table: Recoverable Shale Gas Estimates In China
  Table: Major IOC Involvement In China's Shale Gas Exploration
  Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2014-2019)
  Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2020-2025)
Upstream Projects
  Table: China - Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Risks To Outlook
  Table: Oil Production (China 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (China 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Growth Sources
Risks To Outlook
  Table: Gas Production (China 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (China 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (China 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (China 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (China 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Crude Oil Trade Partners
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2014-2019)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2020-2025)
Fuels Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Fuels Trade Partners
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Asia - Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
China - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index - Overview
Upstream Index - Rewards
Upstream Index - Risks
Downstream Index - Overview
Market Overview
China Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
  Table: Offshore Production Royalty Structure
  Table: China: Tiered Gas Pricing For Residential Users
  Table: Shanghai: Tiered Gas Pricing System For Residential Users
Licensing Regime
  Table: 2014 Offshore Blocks Open To Foreign Participation
  Table: Winners Of Second Shale Gas Licensing Round
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Oil Refineries In China
  Table: Commercial Crude Oil Storage Terminals In China
Crude Oil Pipelines
  Table: Major Oil Pipelines In China
LNG Terminals
  Table: LNG Terminals In China
Gas Storage Terminals
Gas Pipelines
  Table: Major Gas Pipelines in China
Coal-To-Gas Plants
  Table: Planned CTG Plants
Coal-To-Gas Pipelines
  Table: Planned CTG Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Company Profile
Latest Updates
  Table: Major Producing Areas
  Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn)
Operational Data
Latest Updates
  Table: Major Upstream Assets
  Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn)
Operational Data
Latest Updates
  Table: Major Upstream Assets
  Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn)
Regional Overview
Asia - Positive Gas Output Growth In Conflict With Bearish Oil Outlook
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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