Canada Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Date: July 13, 2016
Pages: 137
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: C3397E17458EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Our growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry remains modest given mounting headwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors within a low commodity price environment. the greatest threats are unfavourable project economics and regulatory headwinds that will hamper the growth of oil sands-driven production beyond 2018, much-needed midstream expansions and LNG terminal development. This is exacerbated by the likely drop in exploratory activity throughout Canadian acreage as companies reduce capital expenditures.

Key developments in Canada's oil and gas sector are:
  • We have slightly downgraded our 2016 Canadian crude production forecast to account for unplanned outages in Q216. The wildfires which surrounded Fort McMurray pose a limited threat to the sector's continued growth through 2018 owing to a strong upstream project pipeline.
  • We are reaffirmed in our negative outlook on long-term crude production growth in Canada following given sustained weakness of commodity prices. This, combined with insufficient pipeline takeaway capacity, will join with the government's stronger environmental mandate to undermine proposed upstream and midstream developments.
  • Prime Minister Trudeau and the Albertan government's financial commitments will strengthen support for midstream projects in the province to service existing oil sands operations. However, under its new leadership, Alberta will boost its environmental mandate, undermining pre-FID upstream developments.
  • The proposed 50,000b/d expansion of Imperial Oil's Cold Lake bitumen project in March represents a unique opportunity for a more financially stable company to explore more efficient production methods. The extended life-time of this brownfield project supports its development but does not indicate a broader expansion of Canadian upstream capacity beyond 2017.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta
Upstream Projects
  Table: Canada - Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Sands Commercial Breakeven Costs, USD/BBL
  Table: Oil Production (Canada 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Canada 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Canada 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Canada 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Trends
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Canadian Key LNG Export Projects
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Rankings: Resource Base Will Keep North America Well Ahead
North America Open To Investment, At The Right Price
Resource Limitations Take Toll On Western Europe
  Table: North America & Western Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Rankings: US Widens Its Lead
  Table: North America & Western Europe Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Canada - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index
Downstream Index
Market Overview
Canada Energy Market Overview
State Role
Licensing And Regulation
  Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Downstream Projects
Service Stations
Oil Pipelines
LNG Regasification Terminals
LNG Liquefaction Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Gas Service Stations
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector
  Table: Key Upstream Players
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
  Table:   Table - Major Upstream Assets In Canada
  Table:   Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn
  Table:   Table - Major Upstream Assets In Canada
  Table:   Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn
Imperial Oil
  Table:   Table - Major Upstream Assets In Canada
  Table:   Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn
Regional Overview
North America And Western Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview
  Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025
  Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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