Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Date: September 3, 2016
Pages: 79
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: After stabilisation in 2016, we forecast renewed downside to Azeri oil production from 2017 driven by the country's maturing asset base and a lack of new output brought on stream. Condensates production from the Shah Deniz Phase II will offer temporary upside in 2019, but this will be insufficient to sustainably reverse the overall trend of decline. Our outlook on gas production is broadly bullish, with substantial reserves under development and a strong prospective resource base. The refining sector will continue to struggle, due to low complexity and ageing infrastructure and a continued lack of investment.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
  • The country boasts substantial, prospective and underexplored acreage, in particular offshore in the South Caspian basin. SOCAR has also announced plans to restart onshore exploration, targeting ultra-deep oil deposits.
  • A shortage of drilling rigs continues to delimit drilling activity in the Caspian Sea. A spate of exploration and appraisal, development and production wells are set to be spud by 2017; SOCAR needs to secure additional drilling rigs in the coming quarters if it is to avoid the emergence of a major bottleneck in its upstream.
  • Oil output decreased in 2015, according to reports by SOCAR. In part this stemmed from planned maintenance works, but the bulk of the loss came from faster-than-expected depletion rates at the major ACG fields. After a temporary stabilisation we expect this trend to continue in 2017, despite increased gas reinjection boosting recovery.
  • The gas sector is set for strong growth, driven in large part by development of the Shah Deniz II, which reached FID in 2013 and is targeting first gas from 2018.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Azerbaijan 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Indexation In European Gas Contracts
  Table: Gas Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Latest Updates
Crude Oil Trade
Structural Trends
  Table: Azerbaijan Crude Oil Assay
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
  Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices
  Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
  Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Azerbaijan - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index
Downstream Index
Market Overview
Azerbaijan Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Licensing Regime
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Azerbaijan PSC Main Fiscal Terms
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
  Table: Azerbaijan - Main Refineries
Oil Pipelines
  Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Pipelines
Gas Pipelines
  Table: Azerbaijan - Main Gas Pipelines
Oil Terminals & Ports
  Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Trade Facilities
Oil Storage Facilities
  Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Storage Facilities
Gas Storage Facilities
  Table: Azerbaijan - Main Gas Storage Facilities
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
  Table: Key Upstream Players
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Latest Updates
  Table: Major Upstream Assets In Azerbaijan
  Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn
Latest Updates
  Table: Major Upstream Assets In Azerbaijan
Regional Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent
  Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
  Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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