Algeria Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Date: August 31, 2016
Pages: 88
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Algeria's short-term oil production will be supported by increased focus on conventional assets, but in the absence of deeper, market-oriented reforms foreign participation will remain low, limiting the oil output over the long-term. Our outlook for the gas sector is also bearish, mostly due to slow progress in gas pricing reforms, which will curb upstream investment and lead to production declines toward the second half of our forecast period. More generally, the Algerian market oil and gas market will continue to suffer from unattractive fiscal and regulatory regime, ongoing security concerns, and the weakened commodity price environment.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
  • Algeria's oil and gas reserves will continue to decline during 2016-2020. Oil reserves are forecast to contract by 33.7% to 8.0bn bbl in 2025, while gas reserves will see a reduction of 19.5%, falling to 3.6tcm over the same period. The country will shift the exploration focus away from shale and other frontier plays towards improving recovery from producing assets.
  • Sonetrach announced that Algeria's oil production is entering a new phase of growth. In 2016, the company expects to increase its gas production to 69mn tonnes, up from 67mn tonnes a year earlier. We hold our forecast that Algeria's oil production will increase marginally in 2016 and 2017, before declining at an average annual rate of 1.2% during 2018-2025.
  • Algeria will continue to lag its regional peers in terms of gas pricing reforms. Reforms will be insufficient to draw significant new foreign investment into the upstream gas sector over the coming years, contributing to secular decline in domestic output.
  • We hold our view that Algeria's refining capacity will remain stable at 650,800b/d until 2025. While the country's NOC is planning significant upgrades to the country's refining sector, we have kept the new capacity out of our forecast due to lack of details and progress in the new projects.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2014-2020)
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Total Mean Undiscovered Conventional Resources In Basins Covering Algeria
  Table: Algeria Fourth International Bid Round Block Awards
Upstream Projects
  Table: Algeria Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Algeria LNG Contracts
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Crude Oil
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
  Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
  Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Algeria - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index
Downstream Index
Market Overview
Algeria Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Overview
Licensing Regime
  Table: Algeria Model PSC Main Licensing Terms
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Algeria Model PSC Main Fiscal Terms
Licensing Rounds
  Table: Algeria 2014 Licensing Round
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
LNG Terminals
  Table: Algeria LNG Export Terminals
Oil Refineries
  Table: Algeria Oil Refineries
Gas Pipelines
  Table: Algeria Main Gas Export Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector
  Table: Key Upstream Players
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Enterprise Nationale Sonatrach
Latest Updates
Regional Overview
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
  Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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