Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Date: May 3, 2018
Pages: 70
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Publisher: Strategic Defence Intelligence (SDI)
Report type: Strategic Report
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ID: FE7578A1E7AEN
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Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023
Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

SUMMARY

The Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

SYNOPSIS

This report offers detailed analysis of the Kenyan defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
  • The Kenyan defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Kenyan defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities:list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Kenyan defense industry.
SCOPE
  • With an armed force that is considered to be one of the most powerful in East Africa, Kenya has consistently procured a large amount of military hardware, including small arms, aircraft, artilleries and armored vehicles, which drove defense expenditure during the historic period.
  • The country’s defense budget increased at a CAGR of 8.33%, with an investment of US$1.0 billion in 2014 to US$1.3 billion in 2018. The government’s well-defined military modernization plans and efforts to counter domestic and foreign terrorist attacks, along with the country’s active and consistent participation in various peacekeeping missions, will stimulate expenditure over the forecast period.
  • The country’s defense budget is expected to increase at a CAGR of 4.09%, from US$1.4 billion in 2018 to US$1.6 billion in 2023.
REASONS TO BUY
  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Kenyan defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Kenyan defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Key Trends, and latest industry contracts


NOTE: Out of security concerns Strategic Defence Intelligence (SDI) requires using corporate email address.
1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3. MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS AND EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES

3.1. Current Market Conditions
  3.1.1. Military fleet size
  3.1.2. Procurement Programs
  3.1.3. Key Drivers and Challenges
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
  3.2.1. Kenyan defense budget to grow at a CAGR of 4.09% during 2019-2023
  3.2.2. Border security, threats from terrorist group, peacekeeping missions, and the need to modernize outdated defense equipment to drive Kenya’s defense expenditure
  3.2.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP will be at an average of 1.3% over the forecast period
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
  3.3.1. Share of capital expenditure is expected to increase during the forecast period
  3.3.2. Capital expenditure is anticipated to record a CAGR of 4.15% over the forecast period
  3.3.3. Kenya’s per capita defense expenditure is expected to increase over the forecast period
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
  3.4.1. The homeland security market in Kenya is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.25% over the forecast period
  3.4.2. Human trafficking and illicit drugs trade to drive homeland security expenditure
  3.4.3. Kenya faces a high level of threat from terrorist organizations
  3.4.4. Kenya faces a high level of threat from terrorist organizations
  3.4.5. Kenya has a Terrorism Index score of 6.2
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
  3.5.1. Kenyan defense expenditure is expected to remain low compared to leading spenders
  3.5.2. Kenya will continue to remain a small contributor in the global arms market
  3.5.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase over the forecast period
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends
  3.6.1. Top 10 Defense market sectors by value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2018-2023

4. DEFENSE PROCUREMENT MARKET DYNAMICS

4.1. Import Market Dynamics
  4.1.1. Defense imports increased during the period of 2013−2017
  4.1.2. Weapons manufactured in Serbia comprised the largest share of imports to Kenya
  4.1.3. Aircraft and artillery accounted for a total share 86.5% in Kenyan defense imports
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
  4.2.1. Kenya defense exports were negligible during 2013−2017

5. INDUSTRY DYNAMICS

5.1. Market Regulation
  5.1.1. Kenya does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
  5.1.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is determined on a case to case basis
5.3. Market Entry Route
  5.3.1. Budgeting Process
  5.3.2. Equipment manufacturers enter the market through government-to-government deals
5.4. Key Challenges
  5.4.1. Corruption and lack of transparency hinder the growth of Kenyan defense industry
  5.4.2. Low defense budget to act as obstacle for foreign investors

6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND STRATEGIC INSIGHTS

6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview

7. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND COUNTRY RISK

7.1. Economic Performance
  7.1.1. GDP per capita
  7.1.2. GDP, current prices
  7.1.3. Export of goods and services (LCU Billion)
  7.1.4. Import of goods and services (LCU Billion)
  7.1.5. Gross national disposable income (US$ Billion)
  7.1.6. Local currency unit per US$
  7.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies
  7.1.8. Market capitalization of listed companies as a percentage of GDP
  7.1.9. Government cash surplus deficit as a percentage of GDP
  7.1.10. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP
  7.1.11. Good imports as a percentage of GDP
  7.1.12. Service imports as a percentage of GDP
  7.1.13. Service exports as a percentage of GDP
  7.1.14. Foreign direct investments
  7.1.15. Net foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP
  7.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion)

8. APPENDIX

8.1. About SDI
8.2. Disclaimer

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Kenya Army Strength
Table 2: Kenya Air Force Strength
Table 3: Kenya Navy Strength
Table 4: Kenya - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs
Table 5: Kenya - Future Procurement Programs
Table 6: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Table 7: Kenyan GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023
Table 8: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023
Table 9: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion & US$ Million), 2014-2023
Table 10: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
Table 11: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (KES Billion& US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Table 12: Terrorism Index, 2018
Table 13:Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023
Table 14: Top 10 Kenya Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023
Table 15: Kenya Budget Formation Timetable
Table 16: Kenya - Competitive Landscape of Defense Industry, 2018

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 2: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 3: Kenya GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth,2014-2023
Figure 4: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023
Figure 5: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 6: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2014-2023
Figure 7: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
Figure 8: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (KES Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 9: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018
Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2018
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023
Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018
Figure 15: Kenya Defense Import Trend, 2013-2017 (US$ Million)
Figure 16: Kenyan Defense Import by Country, 2013-2017
Figure 17: Kenyan Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017
Figure 18: Kenya - GDP Per Capita (US$), 2015-2025
Figure 19: Kenya - GDP Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025
Figure 20: Kenya - Export of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 21: Kenya - Import of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 22: Kenya - Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2013
Figure 23: Kenya - LCU per US$, 2015-2024
Figure 24: Kenya - Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
Figure 25: Kenya - Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (Percentage of GDP), 2005-2012
Figure 26: Kenya - Cash Surplus Deficit as (Percentage of GDP), 2008-2012
Figure 27: Kenya - Good Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
Figure 28: Kenya - Good Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
Figure 29: Kenya - Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
Figure 30: Kenya - Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
Figure 31: Kenya - Foreign Direct Investments (BoP, Current US$ Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 32: Kenya - Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
Figure 33: Kenya’s Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion) 2005-2014

COMPANIES MENTIONED

Lockheed Martin
Lockheed Sikorsky
Construcciones Aeronáuticas SA (CASA)/ IPTN
Korean Aerospace Industries
Boeing (McDonnell Douglas)
Samsung Techwin
Hyundai Rotem
Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW)- Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, BAE
General Atomics Aeronautical Systems
Otokar
Roketsan
Makina ve Kimya Endüstrisi Kurumu (MKEK)
Aselsan
Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), Havelsan
Tusas Engine Industries (TEI)
FNSS Defense Systems Company
Istanbul Shipyard.
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