Future of the German Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021

Date: March 20, 2016
Pages: 147
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Publisher: Strategic Defence Intelligence (SDI)
Report type: Strategic Report
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Future of the German Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021
SUMMARY

Germany is one of the top 10 defense markets globally, with a defense budget allocation of US$38.1 billion in 2016. The country's defense expenditure is primarily driven by military modernization programs and involvement in peacekeeping operations, and is expected to register a CAGR of 1.34% during 2017-2021, compared to the negative CAGR of 1.82% registered between 2012 and 2016. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to decrease from 1.1% in 2016 to 1% in 2021; per capita defense expenditure is expected to reach increase from US$464.9 in 2016to US$473.4 by 2021.

KEY FINDINGS
  • During 2012-2016, German defense expenditure registered a growth rate of -1.82%, declining from US$41 billion in 2012 to US$38.1 billion in 2016
  • Military expenditure is anticipated to register a CAGR of 1.34% during 2017-2021, to value US$39.2 billion in 2021
  • Over the forecast period, the country's budget for homeland security is expected to be US$43.3 billion cumulatively
  • Demand for equipment is mainly expected to revolve around transport helicopter, multi-role aircraft, transport aircraft, and infantry fighting vehicles during 2017-2021
SYNOPSIS

Strategic Defence Intelligence's report - Future of the German Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021 offers detailed analysis of the industry with market size forecasts from 2017-2021. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand in the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:
  • Defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the defense industry during 2017-2021, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Porter's Five Force analysis of the defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities from 2016 to 2026
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: Including an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis
REASONS TO BUY
  • Identify and track the global defense market and make regional comparisons to effectively target new revenue streams
  • Understand the importance of being led by the defense ministries in the military procurement market and define your strategies with insight on what your customers really want by analyzing recent orders, technical specifications, and the country's expected investment pattern during 2017-2021
  • Make correct business decisions based on detailed analysis of the defense industry from 2017-2021,which includes the total competitive landscape of the sector with detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers along with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis
  • Determine prospective investment areas by gaining an in-depth understanding of the industry in terms of market opportunities
  • Channel resources by identifying various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues across different sectors during 2017-2021
1 INTRODUCTION

1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3 MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS AND EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES

3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
  3.1.1. Germany's defense expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of 1.34% over 2017-2021
  3.1.2. Maintenance of the armed forces and peacekeeping operations to drive defense expenditure over the forecast period
  3.1.3. German defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to decrease
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
  3.2.1. Germany to allocate a higher share toward revenue expenditure over the forecast period
  3.2.2. Capital expenditure to increase at a CAGR of 1.32% over the forecast period
  3.2.3. Revenue expenditure to cumulate US$133.5 billion over the forecast period
  3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase marginally over 2017-2021
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
  3.3.1. German homeland security budget to increase at a CAGR of 5.62%
  3.3.2. Counter terrorism and cyber security to drive homeland security expenditure
  3.3.3. Germany falls under 'moderately affected' of terrorism category
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
  3.4.1. German defense budget expected to increase marginally over the forecast period
  3.4.2. Germany's defense expenditure expected to be one of the top among European countries
  3.4.3. Germany allocates a lower share of GDP for defense compared to other European countries
  3.4.4. Germany faces a moderate threat from foreign terrorist organizations
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
  3.5.1. Transport Helicopter
  3.5.2. Multi-role Aircraft
  3.5.3. Transport Aircraft
  3.5.4. Infantry Fighting Vehicles

4 DEFENSE PROCUREMENT MARKET DYNAMICS

4.1. Import Market Dynamics
  4.1.1. Defense imports are expected to remain steady during the forecast period
  4.1.2. Germany sourced most of its arms imports from the US
  4.1.3. Missiles and sensors dominate military hardware imports
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
  4.2.1. Arms exports recovered in the last two years
  4.2.2. The US and Israel are Germany's biggest arms importers
  4.2.3. Ships and armored vehicles are the main exported defense products

5 INDUSTRY DYNAMICS

5.1. Five Forces Analysis
  5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low
  5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high
  5.1.3. Barrier to entry: low
  5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low
  5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low

6 MARKET ENTRY STRATEGY

6.1. Market Regulation
  6.1.1. Investment policy promotes 100% FDI in the defense industry
6.2. Market Entry Route
  6.2.1. Foreign defense OEMs form large conglomerates to enter the market
  6.2.2. Foreign OEMs establish subsidiaries or form JVs to enter the industry
6.3. Key Challenges
  6.3.1. Project delays deter defense industry growth
  6.3.2. German arms exports to large defense markets outside the EU are minimal

7 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND STRATEGIC INSIGHTS

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
  7.1.1. Foreign OEMs have strong collaborations with domestic defense firms
7.2. Key Companies
  7.2.1. Diehl Stiftung: overview
  7.2.2. Diehl Stiftung: products and services
  7.2.3. Diehl Stiftung: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.4. Diehl Stiftung: alliances
  7.2.5. Diehl Stiftung: recent contract wins
  7.2.6. Airbus Group: overview
  7.2.7. Airbus Group: products and services
  7.2.8. Airbus Group: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
  7.2.9. Airbus Group: alliances
  7.2.10. Airbus Group: recent contract wins
  7.2.11. Airbus Group: financial analysis
  7.2.12. Heckler andKoch: overview
  7.2.13. Heckler andKoch: products and services
  7.2.14. Heckler and Koch: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.15. Heckler and Koch: recent contract wins
  7.2.16. MAN Truck and Bus AG: overview
  7.2.17. MAN Truck and Bus AG: products and services
  7.2.18. MAN Truck and Bus AG: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
  7.2.19. MAN Truck and Bus AG: alliances
  7.2.20. MAN Truck and Bus AG: recent contract wins
  7.2.21. Airbus Helicopters: overview
  7.2.22. Airbus Helicopters: products and services
  7.2.23. Airbus Helicopters: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.24. Airbus Helicopters: alliances
  7.2.25. Airbus Helicopters: recent contract wins
  7.2.26. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: overview
  7.2.27. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: products and services
  7.2.28. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.29. ESG Elektroniksystem- und Logistik: alliances
  7.2.30. ESG Elektroniksystem- und Logistik: recent contract wins
  7.2.31. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: overview
  7.2.32. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: products and services
  7.2.33. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.34. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: alliances
  7.2.35. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: recent contract wins
  7.2.36. Thales Deutschland: overview
  7.2.37. Thales Deutschland: products and services
  7.2.38. Thales Deutschland: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.39. Thales Deutschland: alliances
  7.2.40. Thales Deutschland: recent contract wins
  7.2.41. MBDA: overview
  7.2.42. MBDA: products and services
  7.2.43. MBDA: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.44. MBDA: alliances
  7.2.45. MBDA: recent contract wins
  7.2.46. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: overview
  7.2.47. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: products and services
  7.2.48. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.49. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: recent contract wins
  7.2.50. Rheinmetall: overview
  7.2.51. Rheinmetall: products and services
  7.2.52. Rheinmetall: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
  7.2.53. Rheinmetall: alliances
  7.2.54. Rheinmetall: recent contract wins
  7.2.55. Rheinmetall: financial analysis

8 BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND COUNTRY RISK

8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
  8.1.1. Population - Rural
  8.1.2. Population - Urban
  8.1.3. Population - Number of Households
8.2. Economic Performance
  8.2.1. Gross Domestic per Capita
  8.2.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$
  8.2.3. Exports of Goods and Services
  8.2.4. Imports of Goods and Services
  8.2.5. Gross National Disposable Income
  8.2.6. Manufacturing Output
  8.2.7. Consumer Price Index
  8.2.8. Wholesale Price Index
  8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per US$
  8.2.10. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies
  8.2.11. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.12. Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit
  8.2.13. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit
  8.2.14. Central Government Debt
  8.2.15. Central Government Debt as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.16. Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.17. Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.18. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.19. Services Imports as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.20. Services Exports as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.21. Services trade surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.22. International reserves, including Gold
8.3. Energy and Utilities
  8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
  8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
  8.3.3. Nuclear Electricity Net Generation
  8.3.4. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
  8.3.5. Total Electricity Exports
  8.3.6. Total Electricity Imports
  8.3.7. Proved reserves of Natural Gas
  8.3.8. Total Petroleum Consumption
  8.3.9. Crude Oil Proved reserves
  8.3.10. Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation
8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability
  8.4.1. Roads, total network
  8.4.2. Air transport, freight
  8.4.3. Overall Construction
8.5. Minerals
  8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6. Technology
  8.6.1. Research and development expenditure
  8.6.2. Patents Granted
8.7. Telecommunication
  8.7.1. Telephone lines
  8.7.2. Telephone lines Penetration Rate

9 APPENDIX

9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: German Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2012-2016
Table 2: German Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2017-2021
Table 3: German Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2012-2016
Table 4: German Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2017-2021
Table 5: German GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2016
Table 6: German GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2017-2021
Table 7: German Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016
Table 8: German Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021
Table 9: German Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012-2016
Table 10: German Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2017-2021
Table 11: German Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2012-2016
Table 12: German Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2017-2021
Table 13: German Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012-2016
Table 14: German Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2017-2021
Table 15: German Defense Revenue Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2012-2016
Table 16: German Defense Revenue Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2017-2021
Table 17: German Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2012-2016
Table 18: German Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2017-2021
Table 19: German Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion),2012-2016
Table 20: German Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2017-2021
Table 21: German Homeland Security Budget (EUR Billion), 2012-2016
Table 22: German Homeland Security Budget (EUR Billion), 2017-2021
Table 23: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2012-2016vs. 2017-2021
Table 24: SDI Terrorism Index
Table25: Key Foreign Players and Operations in the German Defense Industry
Table26:Diehl Stiftung - Product focus
Table27:Diehl Stiftung- Alliances
Table28:Diehl Stiftung- Recent Contract Wins
Table29:Airbus Group- Product focus
Table30: Airbus Group- Alliances
Table31:Airbus Group- Recent Contract Wins
Table32:Heckler andKoch - Product focus
Table33:Heckler andKoch - Recent Contract Wins
Table34:MAN Truck and Bus AG - Product focus
Table35:MAN Truck and Bus AG - Alliances
Table 36:MAN Truck and Bus AG - Recent Contract Wins
Table37:Airbus Helicopters- Product focus
Table38:Airbus Helicopters - Alliances
Table39:Airbus Helicopters - Recent Contract Wins
Table40:ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik- Product focus
Table41:ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik- Alliances
Table42:ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik- Recent Contract Wins
Table43:ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems - Product focus
Table44:ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems - Alliances
Table45:ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems - Recent Contract Wins
Table46:Thales Deutschland - Product focus
Table47:Thales Deutschland - Alliances
Table48:Thales Deutschland - Recent Contract Wins
Table49:MBDA - Product focus
Table50:MBDA - Alliances
Table51:MBDA - Recent Contract Wins
Table52:Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug- Product focus
Table53:Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug- Recent Contract Wins
Table54:Rheinmetall - Product focus
Table55:Rheinmetall - Alliances
Table56:Rheinmetall - Recent Contract Wins

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: German Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion),2012-2016
Figure 2: German Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2017-2021
Figure 3: German Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2012-2016
Figure 4: German Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2017-2021
Figure 5: German GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2012-2016
Figure 6: German GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2017-2021
Figure 7:German Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2012-2016
Figure 8: German Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2017-2021
Figure 9: German Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012-2016
Figure 10: German Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2017-2021
Figure 11: German Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2012-2016
Figure 12: German Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2017-2021
Figure 13: German Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012-2016
Figure 14: German Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2017-2021
Figure 15: German Defense Revenue Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2012-2016
Figure 16: German Defense Revenue Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2017-2021
Figure 17: German Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2012-2016
Figure 18:German Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2017-2021
Figure 19: German Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion),2012-2016
Figure 20: German Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2017-2021
Figure 21: German Homeland Security Budget (EUR Billion), 2012-2016
Figure 22: German Homeland Security Budget (EUR Billion), 2017-2021
Figure 23: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2016
Figure 24: SDI Terrorism Index, 2016
Figure 25: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2012-2016 vs. 2017-2021
Figure 26: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2016 and 2021
Figure 27: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2016
Figure 28: Transport Helicopter Market Size (US$ Million), 2016-2026
Figure 29: Multi-role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2016-2026
Figure 30: Transport Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2016-2026
Figure 31: IFV Market Size (US$ Million), 2016-2026
Figure 32: German Defense Import Trend, 2011-2015 (TIV values)
Figure 33: German Defense Imports by Country (%), 2011-2015
Figure 34: German Defense Imports by Category (%), 2011-2015
Figure 35: German Defense Export Trend, 2011-2015 (TIV values)
Figure 36: German Defense Exports by Country (%), 2011-2015
Figure 37: German Defense Exports by Category (%), 2011-2015
Figure 38: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis
Figure 39: Airbus Group - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 40: Airbus Group - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2011-2015
Figure 41: Airbus Group - Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2011-2015
Figure 42: Rheinmetall - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2010-2014
Figure 43: Rheinmetall - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2010-2014
Figure 44: Rheinmetall - Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2010-2014
Figure 45: Germany Population - Rural (In Millions), 2015-2024
Figure 46: Germany Population - Urban (In Millions), 2015-2024
Figure 47: Germany Population - Number of Households (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 48: Germany GDP per capita, 2015-2024
Figure 49: Germany Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion),2015-2024
Figure 50: Germany Exports of Goods and Services (current US$ Billion), 2004-2013
Figure 51: Germany Imports of Goods and Services (current US$ Billion), 2004-2013
Figure 52: Germany Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 53: Germany Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 54: Germany Consumer Price Index, 2015-2024
Figure 55: Germany Wholesale Price Index, 2003-2012
Figure 56: Germany LCU per US$, 2015-2024
Figure 57: Germany Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 58: Germany Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a Percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 59: Germany Government Cash Surplus/Deficit (LCU Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 60: Germany Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP,2003-2012
Figure 61: Germany Central Government Debt (LCU Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 62: Germany Central Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 63: Germany Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 64: Germany Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP,2005-2012
Figure 65: Germany Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 66: Germany Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 67: Germany Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 68: Germany Services Trade Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 69: Germany International Reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 70: Germany Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion kWh), 2002-2011
Figure 71: Germany Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion kWh), 2003-2012
Figure 72: Germany Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion kWh), 2003-2012
Figure 73: Germany Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million kW), 2001-2010
Figure 74: Germany Total Electricity Exports (Billion kWh), 2003-2012
Figure 75: Germany Total Electricity Imports (Billion kWh), 2003-2012
Figure 76: Germany Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic feet), 2004-2014
Figure 77: Germany Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels per Day), 2004-2013
Figure 78: Germany Crude Oil Proved reserves(Billion Barrels), 2005-2014
Figure 79: Germany Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kw), 2003-2012
Figure 80: Germany Roads (total route-Km), 2002-2010
Figure 81: Germany Air Transport, Freight (Million ton-Km), 2003-2012
Figure 82: Germany Overall Construction (US$ Billion), 2006-2014
Figure 83: Germany Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output(US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 84: Germany Research and Development (thousands LCU), 2001-2010
Figure 85: Germany Patents Granted, 2004-2013
Figure 86: Telephone Lines (In Mn), 2003-2012
Figure 87: Germany Telephone Lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people), 2003-2012

COMPANIES MENTIONED

Heckler and Koch GmbH (HK)
MAN Truck and Bus AG
Airbus Helicopters
ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik
Diehl Stiftung
ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems
Thales Deutschland
Airbus Group
MBDA
Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug
Rheinmetall
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