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Future of the German Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

Date: March 17, 2015
Pages: 150
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Publisher: Strategic Defence Intelligence (SDI)
Report type: Strategic Report
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Future of the German Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020

SUMMARY

The Future of the German Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

KEY FINDINGS
  • Over the historic period, Germany's defense expenditure registered a negative CAGR of 0.41%; between 2016 and 2020, the defense budget is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.09%
  • The country's total defense expenditure during the forecast period is expected to be US$226.9billion
  • The average share of capital expenditure is expected to be 30.3% over the forecast period, compared to an average share of 30.6% during 2011-2015
  • Over the forecast period, the country's budget for homeland security is expected to be US$45.0 billion cumulatively
  • The key areas of investment are expected to be aircraft, helicopter, armored vehicles, and surveillance equipment
SYNOPSIS

This report offers detailed analysis of the German defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:
  • German defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the German defense industry during 2016-2020, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Porter's Five Force analysis of the German defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the coming 10 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the German defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis
REASONS TO BUY
  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the German defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the German defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts
1 INTRODUCTION

1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3 MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS AND EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES

3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
  3.1.1. Germany's defense expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of 1.09% over 2016-2020
  3.1.2. Maintenance of the armed forces and peacekeeping operations to drive defense spending over the forecast period
  3.1.3. German defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to decrease
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
  3.2.1. Germany to allocate a higher share toward revenue expenditure over the forecast period
  3.2.2. Capital expenditure to increase at a CAGR of 0.94% over the forecast period
  3.2.3. Revenue expenditure set to increase over the forecast period
  3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
  3.3.1. German homeland security budget to increase at a CAGR of 3.05%
  3.3.2. Counter terrorism and cyber security to drive homeland security spending
  3.3.3. Germany falls under "some risk" of terrorism category
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
  3.4.1. Germany defense budget expected to increase marginally over the forecast period
  3.4.2. Germany's defense expenditure is low compared to the largest defense spenders in the world
  3.4.3. Germany allocates lower share of GDP for defense compared to US and European countries
  3.4.4. Germany faces some threat from foreign terrorist organizations
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
  3.5.1. Transport Helicopter
  3.5.2. Multi-role Aircraft
  3.5.3. Transport Aircraft
  3.5.4. Infantry Fighting Vehicles

4 DEFENSE PROCUREMENT MARKET DYNAMICS

4.1. Import Market Dynamics
  4.1.1. Germany witnesses declining import trends due to a developing domestic industry
  4.1.2. Germany sourced majority of its arms imports from the US
  4.1.3. Air Defense Systems and Missiles dominate military hardware imports
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
  4.2.1. Arms exports to recover during the forecast period
  4.2.2. US and Greece are the biggest arms importers of Germany
  4.2.3. Ships and armored vehicles are the main exported defense products

5 INDUSTRY DYNAMICS

5.1. Five Forces Analysis
  5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low
  5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high
  5.1.3. Barrier to entry: low
  5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low
  5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low

6 MARKET ENTRY STRATEGY

6.1. Market Regulation
  6.1.1. Investment policy promotes 100% FDI in the defense industry
6.2. Market Entry Route
  6.2.1. Foreign defense OEMs form large conglomerates to enter the market
  6.2.2. Foreign OEMs establish subsidiaries or form JVs to enter the industry
6.3. Key Challenges
  6.3.1. Modernization of military through downsizing existing systems and personnel
  6.3.2. German arms exports to large defense markets outside EU are minimal

7 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND STRATEGIC INSIGHTS

7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
  7.1.1. Foreign OEMs have strong collaborations with domestic defense firms
7.2. Key Domestic Companies
  7.2.1. Heckler andKoch: overview
  7.2.2. Heckler andKoch: products and services
  7.2.3. Heckler and Koch: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.4. Heckler and Koch: recent contract wins
  7.2.5. MAN Truck and Bus AG: overview
  7.2.6. MAN Truck and Bus AG: products and services
  7.2.7. MAN Truck and Bus AG: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
  7.2.8. MAN Truck and Bus AG: alliances
  7.2.9. MAN Truck and Bus AG: recent contract wins
  7.2.10. Airbus Helicopters: overview
  7.2.11. Airbus Helicopters: products and services
  7.2.12. Airbus Helicopters: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.13. Airbus Helicopters: alliances
  7.2.14. Airbus Helicopters: recent contract wins
  7.2.15. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: overview
  7.2.16. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: products and services
  7.2.17. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.18. ESG Elektroniksystem- und Logistik: alliances
  7.2.19. ESG Elektroniksystem- und Logistik: recent contract wins
  7.2.20. Diehl Stiftung: overview
  7.2.21. Diehl Stiftung: products and services
  7.2.22. Diehl Stiftung: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.23. Diehl Stiftung: alliances
  7.2.24. Diehl Stiftung: recent contract wins
  7.2.25. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: overview
  7.2.26. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: products and services
  7.2.27. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.28. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: alliances
  7.2.29. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: recent contract wins
  7.2.30. Thales Deutschland: overview
  7.2.31. Thales Deutschland: products and services
  7.2.32. Thales Deutschland: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.33. Thales Deutschland: alliances
  7.2.34. Thales Deutschland: recent contract wins
  7.2.35. Airbus Group: overview
  7.2.36. Airbus Group: products and services
  7.2.37. Airbus Group: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
  7.2.38. Airbus Group: alliances
  7.2.39. Airbus Group: recent contract wins
  7.2.40. Airbus Group: financial analysis
  7.2.41. MBDA: overview
  7.2.42. MBDA: products and services
  7.2.43. MBDA: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.44. MBDA: alliances
  7.2.45. MBDA: recent contract wins
  7.2.46. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: overview
  7.2.47. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: products and services
  7.2.48. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
  7.2.49. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: recent contract wins
  7.2.50. Rheinmetall: overview
  7.2.51. Rheinmetall: products and services
  7.2.52. Rheinmetall: recent announcement and strategic initiatives
  7.2.53. Rheinmetall: alliances
  7.2.54. Rheinmetall: recent contract wins
  7.2.55. Rheinmetall: financial analysis

8 BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND COUNTRY RISK

  8.1.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
  8.1.2. Population - Rural
  8.1.3. Population - Urban
  8.1.4. Population - Number of Households
8.2. Economic Performance
  8.2.1. Gross Domestic per Capita
  8.2.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$
  8.2.3. Exports of Goods and Services
  8.2.4. Imports of Goods and Services
  8.2.5. Gross National Disposable Income
  8.2.6. Manufacturing Output
  8.2.7. Consumer Price Index
  8.2.8. Wholesale Price Index
  8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per US$
  8.2.10. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies
  8.2.11. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.12. Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit
  8.2.13. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit
  8.2.14. Central Government Debt
  8.2.15. Central Government Debt as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.16. Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.17. Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.18. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.19. Services Imports as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.20. Services Exports as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.21. Services trade surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP
  8.2.22. International reserves, including Gold
8.3. Energy and Utilities
  8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
  8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
  8.3.3. Nuclear Electricity Net Generation
  8.3.4. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
  8.3.5. Total Electricity Exports
  8.3.6. Total Electricity Imports
  8.3.7. Proved reserves of Natural Gas
  8.3.8. Total Petroleum Consumption
  8.3.9. Crude Oil Proved reserves
  8.3.10. Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation
8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability
  8.4.1. Roads, total network
  8.4.2. Air transport, freight
  8.4.3. Overall Construction
8.5. Minerals
  8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6. Technology
  8.6.1. Research and development expenditure
  8.6.2. Patents Granted
8.7. Telecommunication
  8.7.1. Telephone lines
  8.7.2. Telephone lines Penetration Rate

9 APPENDIX

9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: German Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 2: German Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 3: German Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2011-2015
Table 4: German Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2016-2020
Table 5: German GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
Table 6: German GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
Table 7: German Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Table 8: German Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Table 9: German Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Table 10: German Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Table 11: German Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2011-2015
Table 12: German Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2016-2020
Table 13: German Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Table 14: German Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Table 15: German Revenue Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2011-2015
Table 16: German Revenue Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2016-2020
Table 17: German Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Table 18: German Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
Table 19: German Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Table 20: German Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Table 21: German Homeland Security Budget (EUR Billion), 2011-2015
Table 22: German Homeland Security Budget (EUR Billion), 2016-2020
Table 23: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015vs. 2016-2020
Table 24: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 25: Key Foreign Players and Operations in the German Defense Industry
Table 26:Heckler andKoch - Product focus
Table 27:Heckler and Koch - Recent Contract Wins
Table 28: MAN Truck and Bus AG - Product focus
Table29: MAN Truck and Bus AG - Alliances
Table 30: MAN Truck and Bus AG - Alliances
Table 31: Airbus Helicopters- Product focus
Table 32:Airbus Helicopters - Alliances
Table 33: Airbus Helicopters - Recent Contract Wins
Table 34:ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik- Product focus
Table 35:ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik- Alliances
Table 36:ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik- Recent Contract Wins
Table 37:Diehl Stiftung - Product focus
Table 38:Diehl Stiftung- Alliances
Table 39:Diehl Stiftung- Recent Contract Wins
Table 40:ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems - Product focus
Table 41:ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems - Alliances
Table 42:ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems - Recent Contract Wins
Table 43:Thales Deutschland - Product focus
Table 44:Thales Deutschland - Alliances
Table 45:Thales Deutschland - Recent Contract Wins
Table 46:Airbus Group- Product focus
Table 47: Airbus Group- Alliances
Table 48:Airbus Group- Recent Contract Wins
Table 49:MBDA - Product focus
Table 50:MBDA - Alliances
Table 51:MBDA - Recent Contract Wins
Table 52:Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug- Product focus
Table 53:Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug- Recent Contract Wins
Table 54:Rheinmetall - Product focus
Table 55:Rheinmetall - Alliances
Table 56:Rheinmetall - Recent Contract Wins

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: German Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion),2011-2015
Figure 2: German Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 3: German Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 4: German Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 5: German GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2011-2015
Figure 6: German GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2016-2020
Figure 7:German Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2011-2015
Figure 8: German Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2016-2020
Figure 9: German Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Figure 10: German Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Figure 11: German Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 12: German Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 13: German Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2011-2015
Figure 14: German Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2016-2020
Figure 15: German Revenue Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 16: German Revenue Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 17: German Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2011-2015
Figure 18:German Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2016-2020
Figure 19: German Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 20: German Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 21: German Homeland Security Budget (EUR Billion), 2011-2015
Figure 22: German Homeland Security Budget (EUR Billion), 2016-2020
Figure 23: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2015
Figure 24: SDI Terrorism Index, 2015
Figure 25: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2011-2015 vs. 2016-2020
Figure 26: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2015 and 2020
Figure 27: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2015
Figure 28: Transport Helicopter Market Size (US$ Million), 2015-2025
Figure 29: Multi-role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2015- 2025
Figure 30: Transport Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2015- 2025
Figure 31: IFV Market Size (US$ Million), 2015- 2025
Figure 32: German Defense Import Trend, 2009-2013 (TIV values)
Figure 33: German Defense Imports by Country (%), 2009-2013
Figure 34: German Defense Imports by Category (%), 2009-2013
Figure 35: German Defense Export Trend, 2009-2013 (TIV values)
Figure 36: German Defense exports by Country (%), 2009 - 2013
Figure 37: German Defense Imports by Category (%), 2009-2013
Figure 38: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis
Figure 39: Airbus Group - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2010-2014
Figure 40: Airbus Group - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2010-2014
Figure 41: Airbus Group - Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2010-2014
Figure 42: Rheinmetall - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2009-2013
Figure 43: Rheinmetall - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2009-2013
Figure 44: Rheinmetall - Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2009-2013
Figure 45: Germany Population - Rural (In Millions), 2015-2024
Figure 46: Germany Population - Urban (In Millions), 2015-2024
Figure 47: Germany Population - Number of Households (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 48: Germany GDP per capita, 2015-2024
Figure 49: Germany Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion),2015-2024
Figure 50: Germany Exports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2004-2013
Figure 51: Germany Imports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 52: Germany gross national disposable income (US$ Billion), 2003- 2012
Figure 53: Germany Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 54: Germany Consumer Price Index, 2015-2024
Figure 55: Germany Wholesale Price Index, 2003-2012
Figure 56: Germany LCU per US$, 2015-2024
Figure 57: Germany Market Capitalization of listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 58: Germany Market Capitalization of listed companies as a percentage of GDP, 2002-2012
Figure 59: Germany Government cash surplus/deficit (LCU Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 60: Germany Government cash Surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP,2003-2012
Figure 61: Germany Central Government Debt (LCU Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 62: Germany Central Government Debt as a percentage of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 63: Germany Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 64: Germany Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP,2005-2012
Figure 65: Germany Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 66: Germany Services Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 67: Germany Services Exports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 68: Germany Services trade surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 69: Germany International reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 70: Germany Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion KWH), 2002-2011
Figure 71: Germany Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion KWH), 2003-2012
Figure 72: Germany Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion KWH), 2003-2012
Figure 73: Germany Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2010
Figure 74: Germany Total Electricity Exports (Billion KWH), 2003-2012
Figure 75: Germany Total Electricity Imports (Billion KWH), 2003-2012
Figure 76: Germany Proved reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic feet), 2004-2014
Figure 77: Germany Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels per Day), 2004-2013
Figure 78: Germany Crude Oil Proved reserves(Billion Barrels), 2005-2014
Figure 79: Germany Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kw), 2003-2012
Figure 80: Germany Roads (total route-Km), 2002-2010
Figure 81: Germany Air transport, freight (Million ton-Km), 2003-2012
Figure 82: Germany Overall Construction (US$ Billion), 2006-2014
Figure 83: Germany Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output(US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 84: Germany Research and Development (thousands LCU), 2001-2010
Figure 85: Germany Patents Granted, 2004-2013
Figure 86: Telephone lines (In Mn), 2003-2012
Figure 87: Germany Telephone lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people), 2003-2012

COMPANIES MENTIONED

Heckler andKoch GmbH, MAN Truck and Bus AG, Airbus Helicopters, ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik, Diehl Stiftung, ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, Thales Deutschland, Airbus Group, MBDA, Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug, Rheinmetall
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