Uganda Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Date: August 31, 2016
Pages: 77
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Despite delays to the Hoima refinery start-up date, we have not yet altered our forecast for crude output, which we still expect from 2020. This is largely leveraged on the April 2016 decision to proceed with the Uganda-Tanzania oil pipeline route, instead of the originally planned Uganda-Hoima (Kenya) pipeline route. Nevertheless, we highlight risks to our crude oil production timeline still lies to the downside, given the risks to infrastructure projects which remain.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
  • With reserves of 2.5bn barrels of crude, Uganda has Sub-Saharan Africa's fourth-largest crude reserves, behind Nigeria, Angola and South Sudan. There is limited short-term upside risk to reserves: current exploration and appraisal campaigns have reached an end and new exploration will be delayed until more concrete progress is made towards developing existing discoveries. Limited interest in the ongoing licensing round will delay short to medium term new exploration.
  • After years of delays, the Ugandan state minister for minerals reported in June 2016 that the country should issue six production licenses to Tullow Oil and Total before the end of the summer. This is positive news after years of uncertainty.
  • This quarter, we have delayed our forecast for the start-up of the Hoima refinery to 2021 following the failure of the Ugandan government and preferred bidder RT Global, to come to an agreement. The change represents an additional year delay to our previous forecast and is three years beyond the government's initial 2018 target launch (see 'refining section' of this report).
BMI Industry View
  Table: Headline Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2020)
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
  Table: Upstream Project Database
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Applications Made For Production Licences In Uganda
Oil Production Forecast: Crude Project Not Derailed By Hoima Set-Back
  Table: Oil Production (Uganda 2014-2019)
  Table: Oil Production (Uganda 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Production (Uganda 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Production (Uganda 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uganda 2014-2019)
  Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uganda 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Uganda 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Uganda 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Gas Consumption (Uganda 2014-2019)
  Table: Gas Consumption (Uganda 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uganda 2014-2020)
  Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uganda 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Trade
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uganda 2014-2019)
  Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uganda 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
  Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
  Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
  Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Uganda Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Uganda Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Political Regime
Fiscal Regime
  Table: Uganda Fiscal Regime
Licensing Regime
  Table: Uganda Licensing Regime
Licensing Rounds
  Table: Current Licences
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Uganda Refinery
Oil Storage Facilities
  Table: Uganda Main Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Pipeline
  Table: Uganda Oil Pipelines
Company Profile
Tullow Oil
Latest Updates
Company Overview
  Table: Major Upstream Assets in Uganda
  Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Regional Overview
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
  Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Weighting
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