Bulgaria Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

Date: September 21, 2016
Pages: 74
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: B5F11E0544AEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Bulgarian construction industry is expected to contract 1.7% y-o-y in 2016. Infrastructure construction will be the largest market in the country's construction industry, expanding 2.8% y-o-y in 2016 and accounting for 59.0% of its total value. The development of the country's road and railway network with the support of EU funds will continue. Tourism sector will remain a substantial growth driver, while the limited demand and the scarcity of developments in the pipeline in the non-residential building sector will drag downwards the entire residential and non-residential building industry as it is anticipated to contribute about three quarters to the latter sector's total value this year.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
  • Driven by transport infrastructure projects, we forecast Bulgaria's construction industry will grow by an average of 1.6% over 2016-2025.
  • Bulgaria remains highly dependent on EU funding for infrastructure projects, particularly in the transport sector. As such, slow EU recovery will limit the speed of Bulgaria's transport infrastructure growth.
  • Improved absorption of EU structural funding will be supported by public investment projects to a certain extent.
  • World Bank will provide loans worth EUR550mn to Bulgaria for the next six years in order to support financial stability, strengthen electricity sector and improve energy efficiency.
  • We do not expect investment in renewable energy infrastructure to increase given the Bulgarian government decided to terminate incentives for new renewable energy capacity in March 2015.
  • The outlook for the residential sector is not positive, especially from 2019 onwards. The housing market remains weak following a collapse in prices since 2008 and the high levels of indebtedness will act as a headwind to future investment.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Bulgaria Construction Industry Forecast
  Table: Bulgaria Infrastructure Risk/Reward
Infrastructure SWOT
Industry Forecast
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
  Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2015-2025)
Structural Trends
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
  Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2016-2025)
  Table: Transport projects
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
  Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Bulgaria 2016-2025)
  Table: Energy & Utilities Projects
Residential/NonResidential Building - Outlook And Overview
  Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Bulgaria 2015-2025)
  Table: Construction And Social Infrastructure Key Projects
Industry Risk Reward Index
Bulgaria - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
CEE Infrastructure RRI: EU Funding Essential As Risks Deter Private Investors
  Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
  Table: EQS   Table
Company Profile
Mott MacDonald
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
  Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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