Bulgaria Infrastructure Report Q3 2016

Date: June 15, 2016
Pages: 64
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: BD635A23F03EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We currently forecast 1.8% y-o-y real growth this year, mainly due to infrastructure industry (particularly projects in the road and railway sub-sectors), since it is expected to expand by 2.2% y-o-y in 2016 and it contributes more than 56% to the total construction. With EU-funded regional development programme over 2014-2020 underway, civil engineering is anticipated to remain the major growth driver of the construction industry. The development of the country's road and railway network with the support of EU funds will continue as well as the implementation of energy projects.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
  • Driven by transport infrastructure projects, we forecast Bulgaria's construction industry will grow by an average of 1.9% over 2016-2025.
  • Bulgaria remains highly dependent on EU funding for infrastructure projects, particularly in the transport sector. As such, slow EU recovery will limit the speed of Bulgaria's transport infrastructure growth.
  • Improved absorption of EU structural funding will be supported by public investment projects to a certain extent.
  • World Bank will provide loans worth EUR550mn to Bulgaria for the next six years in order to support financial stability, strengthen electricity sector and improve energy efficiency.
  • In March 2016, the Bulgarian Development Bank received a EUR150mn loan from the Council of Europe Development Bank (CEB) for energy efficiency projects (SeeNews, 2016).
  • We do not expect investment in renewable energy infrastructure to increase given the Bulgarian government decided to terminate incentives for new renewable energy capacity in March 2015.
  • The outlook for the residential sector is not positive, especially from 2019 onwards. The housing market remains weak following a collapse in prices since 2008 and the high levels of indebtedness will act as a headwind to future investment.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Bulgaria Construction Industry Forecast
  Table: Bulgaria Infrastructure Risk/Reward
Infrastructure SWOT
Industry Forecast
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
  Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2015-2025)
Structural Trends
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
  Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2016-2025)
  Table: Transport projects
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
  Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Bulgaria 2016-2025)
  Table: Energy & Utilities Projects
Residential/NonResidential Building - Outlook And Overview
  Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Bulgaria 2015-2025)
  Table: Construction And Social Infrastructure Key Projects
Industry Risk Reward Index
Bulgaria - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
CEE Infrastructure RRI: EU Funding Essential As Risks Deter Private Investors
  Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
  Table: EQS Table
Company Profile
Mott MacDonald
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
  Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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