Bosnia-Herzegovina Infrastructure Report Q4 2012

Date: October 10, 2012
Pages: 53
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The construction and infrastructure sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) rests on shaky ground as the Eurozone crisis continues to deplete enthusiasm from investors. The coalition government adds further risk with unstable alliances and the risk of a much more pronounced downturn in economic activity. Construction industry value is forecast to stand at US$0.7bn in 2012, with average year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 2.2% expecting to see the industry value rise marginally by 2016, to US$0.8bn.

Key factors contributing to growth include:
  • The proposed expansion of a terminal at Sarajevo Airport was postponed owing to a lack of demand from passengers. The airport only handled 600,000 passengers during 2011 while the current terminal building has an annual capacity of 1mn passengers. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) provided the Bosnia-Herzegovinian government with a EUR25mn (US$30.76mn) loan for the project in 2010. § Bosnia's Muslim-Croat Federation entered into a construction contract with Turkish construction company Cengiz Insaat. The contract, valued at EUR115mn (US$146mn), is for a section of a future north-south highway. The Suhodol-Tarcin section involves constructing a 3.5km of tunnels and an interchange. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is financing the project, with construction due to take 28 months.
Tensions between ethnic groups in Bosnia will continue to weigh on the country's EU accession prospects, development potential and risk profile through the next decade. Indeed, the risks to the status quo are primarily weighted to the downside, in our view, with a number of issues having the potential to result in a further deterioration in the political situation. That said, we expect the international community to remain firmly committed to Bosnia, which should prevent a relapse into large-scale armed conflict. Despite the lack of timely GDP data, it is becoming increasingly clear that Bosnia's economic outlook is deteriorating rapidly. Data from the industrial and export sectors show a marked weakening in activity during the first half of the year, with any meaningful improvement unlikely by year-end. Providing significant impediments to the recovery are the eurozone debt crisis which is hitting trade, as well as domestic headwinds, such as the ongoing political disunity and temporary output suspension in the aluminium and energy industries.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Bosnia Infrastructure SWOT
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
  Table: EQS
Building Materials
  Table: Cement – Price/Volume % Variances (9m10/9m11)
Cement Forecasts
  Table: Bosnia Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2008 – 2016
  Table: Bosnia Cement Production and Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2013 – 2021
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Bosnia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 – 2016
  Table: Bosnia Construction And Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2013 -2021
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure
Outlook and Overview
Major Projects Table – Transport
  Table: Major Projects – Transport
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure
Outlook and Overview
Major Projects Table – Energy and Utilities
  Table: Major Projects – Energy and Utilities
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
Outlook and Overview
Major Projects Table – Residential, Non-Residential and Social Infrastructure
  Table: Major Projects – Residential, Non-Residential and Social Infrastructure
Risk/Reward Ratings
Bosnia’s Risk/Reward Ratings
Regional Overview
Central and Eastern Europe Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: BMI's Central and Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Company Profiles
Bosnia & Herzegovina Infrastructure Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
Global Overview
  Table: BMI Infrastructure Index - YTD Top Performers (%)
  Table: BMI Infrastructure Index - YTD Worst Performers (%)
Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Data Methodology
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
Capital Investment
Construction Sector Employment
Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
Project Finance Ratings
  Table: Design And Construction Phase
  Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction
  Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities
  Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport
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