Turkey Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Date: September 14, 2016
Pages: 78
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Turkey's coup attempt has shaken the petrochemicals industry with arrests of senior managers of the local producer Petkim, but its Azerbaijani majority owner SOCAR is likely to continue investments. The pre-coup outlook had been brightening and Turkey remains a significant importer, although depreciation will support local production.

Petkim's expanded ethylene plant, which has seen capacity increase from 520,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) to 600,000tpa, supported petrochemicals output growth in H116. The concurrent increase in purified terephthalic acid (PTA) capacity from 70,000tpa to 105,000tpa also helped lift chemicals output and provided cheaper feedstock for polymers production. Petkim reported 6.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) production volume growth in H116, taking total petrochemicals output to 1.64mn tonnes. This came on the back of its external product sales growth of 14.4% to 935,700 tonnes. Capacity usage at its 3.6mn tpa complex was up percentage points compared to H115 to 94%.

The main risks are further challenges to President Erdogan's authority, both from the military and terrorism, as well as souring relations with the EU. At present, Erdogan is using the attempted coup to consolidate his authority, which may well improve political certainty so long as he continues to command popular support. Trade with the EU is crucial and while it appears the political situation has put the issue of EU membership off the cards, both sides continue to see a net positive in maintaining trade and investment relations. However, political considerations - particularly in the event of a break with NATO - would significantly undermine relations, potentially leading to European firm- slowing investment in plants with a corresponding crimping of petrochemicals demand.
BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
  Table: Turkey - Petrochemicals Capacity Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2020 ('000tpa)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
  Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
Turkey Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Company Profile
  Table: Petkim's Financial Results (TRYmn), 2011-2015
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation
  Table: Tüpras' Financial Results, 2011-2015
Regional Overview
Europe Overview
Global Industry Overview
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Turkey 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Turkey 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Turkey 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Turkey 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Turkey 1990-2025)
  Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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