Poland Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Date: September 14, 2016
Pages: 76
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: P29858D6D37EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Polish petrochemicals industry is facing plenty of downside risk as a result of the potential effects of a Brexit-induced slowdown in manufacturing exports. Already, petrochemicals margins are under pressure and some polymer segments, notably polyethylene, saw declines in production in H116. Nevertheless, the industry is investing in new capacity, with 100,000tpa of extra polymer-grade propylene capacity available from 2018.

Polish petrochemicals producer PKN Orlen has pledged to expand propylene capacity to 550,000 tonnes per annum (tpa), a decision that appears to be justified by the 7.2% y-o-y growth in polypropylene output to 135,000 tonnes in H116. Overall plastic output rose 4.7% over the period. However, the local market in other polymers has come under pressure, with polyethylene output down 3.0% y-o-y to 192,100 tonnes and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) down 13.5% to 140,500 tonnes.

In terms of feedstock for polymer production, ethylene output down 2.3% y-o-y to 272,000 tonnes, while propylene production was down 0.5% to 197,000 tonnes. As a result, while propylene capacity utilisation was a healthy 87.6%, ethylene utilisation was just 71.5%. A 47% rise in oil prices also raised the cost of Poland's naphtha and gasoil supply, which represent 75% and 25%, respectively, of cracker feedstock capacity. Consequently, petrochemicals margins fell 7.6% between January and June to EUR970/t.
BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
  Table: Polish Petrochemicals Sector Capacity, 2012-2020 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Outlook
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
  Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Company Profile
Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN Orlen)
Grupa Lotos
  Table: Grupo Lotos' Financial Results, 2011-2015 (PLNmn)
Regional Overview
Europe Overview
Global Industry Overview
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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