Poland Petrochemicals Report Q3 2016

Date: June 15, 2016
Pages: 78
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: P4DE3304364EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Polish polymer output growth diminished in Q116 alongside declining petrochemicals margins, amid increased oil price volatility. However, the outlook for the rest of the year is positive, with exports set to surge as Germany's economy picks up and Polish domestic demand strengthens.

With production well under nameplate capacity, Poland has plenty of potential for high rates of growth, even without further capacity expansion. In Q116, Poland's polymer sector witnessed an overall positive performance, with polyethylene output up 1.2% y-o-y to 97,900 tonnes and polypropylene up 4.8% to 25,500 tonnes, although PVC was down 11.2% to 72,500 tonnes. However, growth rates were slower than the level achieved in 2015, indicating that the industry was facing slower domestic demand and continued to be operating well below its full potential.

The Polish petrochemicals industry continues to draw investment and is planning for expansion. The focus will be the plans of Polish refiners Grupa Lotos and Grupa Azoty, which are considering building a 1mn tpa petrochemicals complex in Gdansk. The complex will either be centred on an ethylene cracker or an aromatics extraction plant and would be the biggest petrochemicals investment in Poland for many years. However, it is unlikely that the complex will come onstream over the forecast period, and much will depend on the direction of feedstock costs. Until there is firm confirmation of the plans, BMI will exclude this project from the forecasts.
BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
  Table: Polish Petrochemicals Sector Capacity, 2012-2020 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
  Table: GDP By Expenditure (Poland 2013-2020)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
  Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Company Profile
Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN Orlen)
Grupa Lotos
  Table: Grupo Lotos' Financial Results, 2011-2014 (PLNmn)
Regional Overview
  Table: Northwest European Cracker Outages
  Table: Europe Polymer Plant Turnarounds
Global Industry Overview
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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