Japan Petrochemicals Report 2014

Date: December 18, 2013
Pages: 103
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: JA1397E6B62EN

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BMI Industry View

Japan's petrochemicals industry will slowly turn the corner in 2014, following a period of volatility and decline. However, BMI's Japan Petrochemicals Report warns that the industry cannot count on domestic demand for growth, while in external markets it struggles with competitiveness in the context of high naphtha import costs and the expected onslaught of cheap product from North America.

Ethylene production has slowed markedly with output levels now at levels not seen for 20 years. Producer margins have been squeezed with the major players reporting much lower profits for the latest financial year. Japanese polymer demand has languished, although producers have been able to pass on higher naphtha costs by hiking product prices, thereby protecting margins. Fibre intermediates, such as purified terephthalic acid (PTA), acrylonitrile (ACN) and caprolactam have been hard hit as have products further downstream such as methyl methacrylate (MMA). The slowing of growth in China and Japan's persistent economic stagnation are to blame. The worst affected segment in 2013 was PP with output slumping by an estimated 8.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1.37mn tonnes, while LDPE fell 7.2% to 1.37mn tonnes and HDPE was down 0.9% to 920,000 tonnes. However, PVC grew 9.9% to 1.93mn tonnes.
BMI Industry View
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
  Table: Japan: Planned cracker turn-arounds
  Table: Japan's Petrochemicals Sector, 2011-2018, ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Long-Term Benefits To Tourism Largely Uncertain
Construction Realities Unlikely To Mimic Stock Gains
Costs To Aggravate Risky Fiscal Situation
Infrastructure Potentially Underutilised Given Poor Demographics
Raising Gaming, Immigration, Education And Nuclear Issues
  Table: Japan - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Japan Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Financial Results And Corporate Strategy
  Table: Japan's Petrochemicals Producers Results, JPYbn
Company Profile
Asahi Kasei Corporation
  Table: Asahi Kasei financial results (JPYmn)
Mitsubishi Chemical
  Table: Mitsubishi Chemical financial results (JPYmn)
  Table: Petrochemicals Capacity (000 tpa)
Mitsui Chemicals
Sumitomo Chemical Group
  Table: Sumitomo Chemical financial results (JPYmn)
Tosoh Corporation
  Table: Tosoh financial results (JPYmn)
Regional Overview
Asia Overview
Short-term outlook
Preparing for another capacity surge
Rapid growth in Southeast
Global Industry Overview
A Stable 2013, Leading to Growth in 2014?
  Table: Top 10 ethylene producers, 2013
Long-term growth
Shale: The Future of Feedstock?
Threats to growth
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Crude Price Forecasts
  Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Variance Across Product Markets
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
Weak Demand Persists
Risks To Outlook
  Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement
  Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
  Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk Reward Rating Methodology
  Table: Petrochemicals Risk Reward Rating Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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