China Petrochemicals Report Q2 2016

Date: March 16, 2016
Pages: 88
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

We expect China's petrochemicals industry to come under pressure from cooling Chinese economic growth over the coming years. Petrochemicals producers will struggle to survive in the face of falling profit margins, sluggish demand and waning support from the local governments. In the present economic environment and with weak oil prices keeping naphtha costs down, the development of coal and methanol based chemicals makes less economic sense.

In 2015, ethylene output grew 1.6% y-o-y to 17.1mn tonnes, while primary plastic output rose 10.5% to 76.9mn tonnes and plastic products rose 1.0% to 75.6mn tonnes. By the end of the year, the rate of production had recovered from a sharp decline in Q215 and was on a consistent upward trend. BMI expects lower capacity utilisation in the context of ethylene capacity growing at a faster rate than output and demand. Coupled with low naphtha prices, there are doubts about the viability of planned coal-to-olefins/ methanol-to-olefins (CTO/MTO) projects. The diversification of feedstock away from naphtha now makes little sense, while independents are continuing to fuel investment in the refining sector thereby providing opportunities for naphtha production growth.
BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
  Table: China's Petrochemicals Sector ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated), 2012-2020
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Ranking
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Trends: Economic Volatility And Safety Concerns
Cracker Project Timescale
  Table: Conventional Cracker Projects, 2016-2020
Upstream And Refining
  Table: Refineries In China With Over 200,000b/d Capacity
Unconventional Gas Development
Coal-Based Chemicals
  Table: China MTO plant operating status round-up, January 2016
Aromatics And Derivatives
Company Profile
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec)
  Table: PetroChina Financial Results (CNYmn)
Regional Overview
Asia Overview
Global Industry Overview
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices
  Table: Global Energy Price Forecasts (2014-2019)
  Table: Global Energy Price Forecasts (2020-2025)
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
  Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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