Venezuela Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Date: March 23, 2016
Pages: 65
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: VE11D68E890EN

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Venezuela Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI View: The operating environment for the agribusiness sector has deteriorated significantly over recent years, due to the poor macroeconomic climate, a shortage of foreign currency for input purchases and general government mismanagement. Venezuela's economy will continue to be under extreme downward pressure in 2016 amidst low international oil prices. The growing headwinds to the economy will weigh on agricultural production and consumption in the coming years, and we forecast most of the commodities to stagnate out to 2020. Producers of agricultural goods will struggle as rising production costs and controlled prices at the farm level reduce margins. As such, the divergence between Venezuela and its neighbouring countries in terms of agricultural sector development will continue to grow in the coming years.

Key Forecasts
  • Coffee production growth to 2019/20: 7.2% to 536,000 60kg bags. Venezuela's coffee sector suffers from many structural weaknesses and is on the decline. Low profitability (due to government-mandated prices), the lack of private and public investment and rust disease will impede production from growing.
  • Poultry production growth to 2019/20: -5.2% to 578,000 tonnes. The sector is held back by a lack of profitability due to high input costs, inflation and government price controls, along with increased competition from imports. The poultry industry will fare somewhat better than the beef sector, for which the outlook is especially bleak.
  • Corn consumption growth to 2020: 4.6% to 3.8mn tonnes. Grains consumption is also feeling the pinch of economic woes and the decrease in foreign exchange, as Venezuela encounters problems with importing grains. Demand in the medium term will remain lacklustre, amidst low domestic grains supply and the weak growth in the livestock sector.
  • 2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD26.63bn (down 2.6% from 2015; forecast to grow annually by 1.7% on average from 2016 to 2020).
  • 2016 real GDP growth: -6.2% (up from -7.5% expected in 2015; forecast to grow annually by 0.4% on average between 2016 and 2020).
  • 2016 consumer price index: 252.9% y-o-y (up from 116.2% expected in 2015; forecast to grow annually by 133.2% on average between 2016 and 2020).
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
  Table: Venezuela - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2013-2020)
Coffee Outlook
  Table: Venezuela - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2013-2020)
Livestock Outlook
  Table: Venezuela - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2013-2020)
  Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2010-2015)
Commodity Strategy
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Americas Machinery Outlook
  Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
Americas GM Outlook
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Regional Overview
  Table: TPP - Main Winners And Losers For Agriculture
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Venezuela Agribusiness Competitive Landscape
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook 2015
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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