Report on Analysis and Forecast of China Live hog, Layers and Broilers (2009-2010)

Date: February 22, 2010
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US$ 1,650.00
Publisher: Beijing Shennong Kexin Agribusiness Consulting Co., Ltd
Report type: Strategic Report
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ID: R3C02F3CB6CEN
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Report on Analysis and Forecast of China Live hog, Layers and Broilers (2009-2010)
Research Background

China's live hog production gradually restored in 2009, the price of live hog did not reduce greatly as expected; layers rearing mainly Influenced by festivals and fluctuated frequently between the gain and loss. In addition to the changes of market supply and demand, the epidemic became the most important factor to affect the China livestock market in 2009.

In the rearing and slaughtering areas, the number of scattered farming continued to decline, large-scale breeding houses kept expanding; meanwhile, more breeding cooperatives emerged in local regions; large feed and slaughter enterprises entered rearing industry supported by foreign investment. In addition, China's pork and poultry exports basically maintained stability in the context of the international financial crisis.

According to the supply and demand characteristics of livestock and poultry products, we did a research on China meat and egg balance between supply and demand after analyzing on the Changes of China live hog, layer and,broiler price and international trade.

There are clear views, detailed and accurate data in this report. We forecast the market in 2010 based on analysis of China live hog, layer and broiler market developments and change characteristics in 2009.
RESEARCH BACKGROUND I

PART ONE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT OF CHINA ANIMAL HUSBANDRY


1.1 Meat and Egg Consumption Tendency
1.2 Livestock Product International Trade
1.3 Feed Industry Development
  1.3.1 Major Livestock Feed Output and Structure Changes
  1.3.2 Changes of Main Feedstuff Price

PART TWO ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF LIVE HOG

2.1 China Live Hog Production
  2.1.1 Live Hog Rearing Policies
    2.1.1.1 Supporting policies of Live Hog Rearing
    2.1.1.2 Regional Distribution Planning Of Live Hog Advantage Area(2008-2015)
    2.1.1.3 Plan on Preventing Live Hog’s price down excessively
    2.1.1.4 Genetic Improvement Planning of Live Hog
  2.1.2 Live Hog Inventory Increases Slightly
  2.1.3 Fertile Sow Inventory Maintaining Stability
  2.1.4 Regional Distribution of Live Hog Production
  2.1.5 Proportion of Live Hog Scale-rearing Size Nearly 60%
2.2 Price Changes of China Live Hog Market
  2.2.1 Live Hog Prices Changes “Fall- Rise-Remain Stable”
  2.2.2 Piglet Prices Remain at RMB18-24/Kg
  2.2.3 Live Hog Rearing Profits Fluctuate between RMB-150-150/Head
2.3 Analysis and Forecast of Live Hog Slaughter
  2.3.1 Live Hog Slaughter Policies
  2.3.2 Slaughtered Live hogs Continue to Increase
  2.3.3 Live Hogs Slaughter Increase at Scaled and Licensed Slaughterhouses
  2.3.4 Changes of Live Hogs Slaughter Profits at Scaled and Licensed Slaughterhouses
2.4 Analysis and Forecast of Live Hog Inventory、Price in 2010
  2.4.1 Live Hog Inventory Maintaining Stability in 2010
  2.4.2 Slaughtered Live hogs Will Increase in 2010
  2.4.3 Live Hog prices will be relatively stable in 2010
2.5 Analysis and Forecast on Pork Import and Export
  2.5.1 Pork Import
    2.5.1.1 Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports Volume Reduce,Import Prices Decline
    2.5.1.2 Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports from U.S. Decrease Sharply
  2.5.2 Live Hog Export
    2.5.2.1 Live Hog Exports Volume Decrease Slightly, Price Steady
    2.5.2.2 Live Hog mainly Export to Hong Kong and Macau
  2.5.3 Fresh and Frozen Pork Export
    2.5.3.1 Fresh and Frozen Pork ExportsVolume Reduce Sharply, Prices Decline Slightly
    2.5.3.2 Fresh and Frozen Pork mainly Export to Hong Kong
  2.5.4 China Pork Trade to Decline Slightly in 2010
2.6 Pork Supply and Demand
  2.6.1 Pork Output Continues to Increase
  2.6.2 Pork Demand
    2.6.2.1 Pork Price in 2009
    2.6.2.2 Pork Consumption Characteristics of Urban Households
    2.6.2.3 Pork Consumption Characteristics of Rural Households
    2.6.2.4 Pork Out Households Consumption Increase of Urban and Rural Residents
  2.6.3 Pork Balance Between Supply and Demand

PART THREE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF LAYER

3.1 China Breeding Layer Production1
  3.1.1. Characteristics of Breeding Layer Introduction
    3.1.1.1 Breeding Layer Introductions Decrease
    3.1.1.2 HY-LINE VARIETY BROWN Introduction Exceeds 70%
    3.1.1.3 Breeding Layer Import Form United States is about 73%
    3.1.1.4 Enterprise of Breeding Layer Introduction
  3.1.2 Domestic Production of Breeding Layer New Increase is More Than Imports
  3.1.3 Inventoryof Breeding Layer Increase
  3.1.4 Volume of Sales and Price of PS layers Decline
3.2 China PS layers Production
  3.2.1 Inventory of PS Layers Increase
3.3 China CS layers Production
  3.3.1 Inventory of Layers Decline
  3.3.2 Regional Distribution of Layers Production
  3.3.3 Proportion of Standardization breeding of Layers Continue to Improve
3.4 Analysis and Forecast on Changes of China Layer Price
  3.4.1 Hen Eggs Price Takes on a Festive Feature
  3.4.2 Culled Layer Prices Decline
  3.4.3 Higher Layers Rearing Profits Around Festivals
  3.4.4 Hen Eggs Price to Rise in 2010
3.5 Analysis and Forecast of Import and Export of Poultry Eggs
  3.5.1 Eggs With Shell Export
    3.5.1.1 Eggs With Shell Export Decline7.31%
    3.5.1.2 Share of Fresh Hen Eggs accounting for 80% of the total export of poultry eggs
    3.5.1.3 Eggs With Shell Mainly Export to Hong Kong
  3.5.2 Egg Products Without Shell Export
    3.5.2.1 Egg Products Without Shell Export Volume decline20%
    3.5.2.2 Egg Products Without Shell Mainly Export to Hong Kong and Japan
3.6 China Poultry Eggs Supply and Demand
  3.6.1 Poultry Eggs Supply
    3.6.1.1 Poultry Egg Output Remained Stable
    3.6.1.2 Poultry Eggs Production Structure
  3.6.2 Poultry Eggs Demand
    3.6.2.1 Hen Eggs Retail Price Rise in 2009
    3.6.2.2 Poultry Eggs Consumption Continue to Increase
    3.6.2.3 Poultry Eggs Consumption Characteristics of Urban Households
    3.6.2.4 Poultry Eggs Consumption Characteristics of Rural Households
    3.6.2.5 Rateof Urban and Rural Households Poultry Meat Consumption Narrow

PART FOUR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF BROILER

4.1 China Broiler Production
  4.1.1 Breeding Broiler Introductions
  4.1.2 PS Broiler and CS Broiler Inventory Increase
  4.1.3 Regional Distribution of Broiler Production
4.2 Analysis and Forecast on Changes of China Broiler Price
  4.2.1 Broiler Prices in Main Production Areas Exceed 10% Declining from 2008
  4.2.2 Day Old Broiler Prices Rise to peak at RMB2.50/Bird in Mar. and Aug.
  4.2.3 Broiler Rearing Profits averaged RMB1.0/Bird
  4.2.4 Broiler Price to Rise Slightly in 2010
4.3 Analysis and Forecast on Import and Export of Poultry Meat
  4.3.1 Poultry Meat Import
    4.3.1.1 Poultry Meat Imports Decline
    4.3.1.2 Frozen Chicken Paw Imports Accounte for 52% of total China Poultry Meat Imports
    4.3.1.3 China Poultry Meat Import Volume Form United States Rise to about 82.5%
  4.3.2 Poultry Meat Export
    4.3.2.1 Poultry Meat Exports Increase Slightly
    4.3.2.2 Poultry Meat Mainly Export as Whole Chicken and Frozen Cut Chicken
    4.3.2.3 Poultry Meat Mainly Export to Hong Kong and Malaysia
4.4 China Poultry Meat Supply and Demand
  4.4.1 Poultry Meat Supply
    4.4.1.1 Poultry Meat Output Increase Slightly
    4.4.1.2 Poultry Meat Output Structure
  4.4.2 Poultry Meat Demand
    4.4.2.1 Chicken Price in 2009
    4.4.2.2 Poultry Meat Consumption Continue to Increase
    4.4.2.3 Poultry Meat Consumption Characteristics of Urban Households
    4.4.2.4 Poultry Meat Consumption Characteristics of Rural Households
    4.4.2.5 Comparison Between Urban and Rural Households Poultry Meat Consumption

PART FIVE CHINA MEAT BALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND

5.1 Meat Supply
  5.1.1 Meat output Continue to Increase
  5.1.2 Beef Output Increase Slightly
  5.1.3 Mutton Output Increase Slightly
  5.1.4 Meat Output Structure
5.2 Meat Demand
  5.2.1 Meat Consumption
  5.2.2 Meat Consumption Structure
5.3 Meat Balance Between Supply and Demand

FIGURE CONTENTS

Fig 1.1, Changes of China Industrial Feed Output,2001-2009
Fig 1.2, Structure of Live Hog Feed Product, 2001-2009
Fig1.3, Structure of Layers Feed Product, 2001-2009
Fig 1.4, Structure of Broiler Feed Product, 2001-2009
Fig 1.5, Price of Corn and Soybean Meal, 2007-2009
Fig 2.1, China Live Hog Inventory, 1990-2009
Fig 2.2, China Fertile Sows Inventory, 1990-2009
Fig 2.3, China Regional Structure of Live Hog Slaughter Over the past 10 years
Fig 2.4, China Regional Structure of Live Hog Inventory/ Slaughter, 2008
Fig 2.5, Breeding Scale of China Live Hogs Production, 1998-2009
Fig 2.6, Live Hog Prices of Main Provinces, 2007-2009
Fig 2.7, Piglet Prices of Main Provinces, 2007-2009
Fig 2.8, Rearing Profits Changes in Self-sutained and Purchase Live hoglets, 2007-2009
Fig 2.9, China Live Hog Slaughter, 1990-2009
Fig 2.10, China Slaughtered Live Hogs of Scaled and Licensed Slaughterhouses, 2008-2009
Fig 2.11, Ex-foctory Price Differences between Live Hog and Halved Carcass from Scaled and Licensed Slaughterhouses, 2008-2009
Fig 2.12, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports Volume and Price, 2000-2009
Fig 2.13, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports by Original Country, 2000-2009
Fig 2.14, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports by Original Country, 2009
Fig 2.15, China Live Hog Export Volume and Price, 2000-2009
Fig 2.16, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports by Country of Destination, 2000-2009
Fig 2.17, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Exports Volume and Price, 2000-2009
Fig 2.18, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Export Volume by Country of Destination, 2000-2009
Fig 2.19, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Export Volume by Country of Destination, 2009
Fig 2.20, China Pork Output, 1990-2009
Fig 2.21, China Pork Retail Price of Bazaar and Supermarket, 2006-2009
Fig 2.22, Per Capita Pork Consumption of China Urban Households, 1985-2009
Fig2.23, Relationship Between Per Capita Pork Consumption and Income of China Urban Residents, 1996-2008
Fig2.24, Per Capita Pork Consumption of China Rural Households, 1978-2008
Fig3.1, Breeding Layer Introduction Volume, 2005-2009
Fig3.2, Breeding Layer Introduction species, 2008-2009
Fig3.3, Main Country of Breeding Layer Introduction form, 2008-2009
Fig3.4, New Increase Volume of Breeding layer
Fig3.5, Inventory of breeding layers of grandparent generation of the 22 breeding bird production enterprises, monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture
Fig3.6, Sales quantity of chicks of parent generation of the 22 companies monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture
Fig3.7, Priceof chicks of parent generation of the 22 companies monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture
Fig3.8, Inventory of breeding birds of parent generation of the 22 companies monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture
Fig3.9, Inventory of Layers, 2008-2009
Fig 3.10, China Regional Structure of Poultry Egg Output Over the past 10 years
Fig 3.11, China Regional Structure of Poultry Egg Output, 2008
Fig 3.12, Scale Structure of Layers Faming, 2009
Fig 3.13, Hen Egg Prices Changes of Main Provinces, 2008-2009
Fig 3.14, Culled Layer Prices Changes of Main Provinces, 2008-2009
Fig 3.15, Layers Rearing Profits of Main Provinces in China, 2008-2009
Fig 3.16, China Eggs With Shell Export Volume、Price, 2000-2009
Fig 3.17, China Eggs With Shell Export Volume by Variety, 2000-2009
Fig 3.18, China Eggs With Shell Export Volume by Variety, 2009
Fig 3.19, China Eggs With Shell Export Volume by by Country of Destination, 2000-2009
Fig 3.20, China Eggs With Shell Export Volume by by Country of Destination, 2009
Fig 3.21, China Egg Products Without Shell Export Volume and Price, 2000-2009
Fig 3.22, China Egg Products Without Shell Export Country of Destination, 2000-2009
Fig 3.23, China Egg Products Without Shell Export Country of Destination, 2009
Fig 3.24, China Poultry Egg Output, 1990-2009
Fig 3.25, China Poultry Egg Output Structure, 2009
Fig 3.26, China Fresh Hen Egg Retail Price of Supermarket and Bazaar, 2006-2009
Fig 3.27, Per Capita Poultry Egg consumption of China, 1952-2009
Fig 3.28, Per Capita Poultry Egg consumption of China Urban Households, 1985-2009
Fig 3.29, Relationship Between Per Capita Poultry Egg Consumption and Income of China Urban Residents, 1996-2008
Fig 3.30, Per Capita Poultry Egg consumption of China rural Households, 1978-2009
Fig4.1, Broiler Breeder Introduction Volume, 1997-2008
Fig4.2, Raising Amount of PS Broiler and CS Broiler, 1997-2009
Fig 4.3, China Regional Structure of Poultry Meat Output Over the past 10 years
Fig 4.4, China Regional Structure of Poultry Meat Output, 2008
Fig 4.5, Broiler Prices of Main Provinces in China, 2008-2009
Fig 4.6, Day Old Broiler Prices of Main Provinces in China, 2008-2009
Fig 4.7, Broiler Rearing Profits of Main Provinces in China, 2008-2009
Fig 4.8, China Poultry Meat Imports Volume and Price, 2000-2009
Fig 4.9, China Poultry Meat Imports by Variety, 2009
Fig 4.10, China Poultry Meat Imports by Original Country, 2000-2009
Fig 4.11, China Poultry Meat Imports by Original Country, 2009
Fig 4.12, China Poultry Meat Exports Volume and Price, 2000-2009
Fig 4.13, China Poultry Meat Export Value by Variety, 2009
Fig 4.14, China Poultry Meat Exports by Country of Destination, 2000-2009
Fig 4.15, China Poultry Meat Exports by Country of Destination, 2009
Fig 4.16, China Poultry Meat Output, 1990-2009
Fig 4.17, China Poultry Meat Output Structure
Fig 4.18, China Broiler and Chicken Retail Price of Supermarket and Bazaar
Fig 4.19, Per Capita Poultry Meat consumption of China ,1958-2009
Fig 4.20, Per Capita Poultry Meat consumption of China Urban Residents,1998-2008
Fig 4.21, Per Capita Poultry Meat Consumption of China Rural Households, 1988-2008
Fig 5.1, China Meat Output, 1990-2009
Fig 5.2, China Beef Output, 1990-2009
Fig 5.3, China Mutton Output, 1990-2009
Fig 5.4, China Meat Output Structure
Fig 5.5, Per Capita Meat Consumption of China rural and Urban residents by Region, 1996-2008
Fig 5.6, China Meat Consumption Structure

ATTACHED TABLES

Table 1, Plan on Preventing Excessive Decline of Pig Price
Table 2, China Live Hog Inventory by Province (2006-2009)
Table 3, China Fertile Sow Inventory by Province (2006-2009)
Table 4, Price Changes of China Live Hog and Live hoglet in Main Provinces (2007-2009)
Table 5, Ex-farm Price of Live Hog by Month in China (2008-2009)
Table 6, Ex-farm Average Price of Whole Country of Live hoglet by Month in China(2008-2009)
Table 7, China Live Hog Slaughter by Province ( 2006-2009)
Table 8, China Live Hog Inventory Forecast
Table 9, China Live Hog Slaughter Forecast
Table 10, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Imports by Original Country/Region (2005-2009)
Table 11, China Fresh and Frozen Pork Exports by Country/Region (2005-2009)
Table 12, China Live Hog Exports by Country /Region of Destination (2005-2009)
Table 13, China Pork Output by Province (2006-2009)
Table 14, China Pork Supply and Demand Balance Statement
Table 15, Egg Breeder Introduction Volume and Species of Main Enterprise in 2009
Table 16, Price Changes of China Hen egg and Culled Layer in Main Province (2008-2009)
Table 17, Ex-farm Average Price of Whole Country of Egg by Month in China (2008-2009)
Table 18, Ex-farm Average Price of Whole Country of Culled Layer by Month in China (2008-2009)
Table 19, China Shelled Eggs Exports by Variety (2005-2009)
Table 20, China Shelled Eggs Exports by Country (2005-2009)
Table 21, China Hulled Eggs Products Exports by Country (2005-2009)
Table 22, China Poultry Egg Output by Province (2006-2009)
Table 23 Per-capita Consumption Proportion of Eggs by Urban Households & by Rural Residents
Table 24, China Poultry Slaughter by Province (2006-2009)
Table 25, Broiler and Day Old Broiler Prices of Main Provinces in China (2008-2009)
Table 26, Ex-farm Average Price of Whole Country of Day Old Broiler by Month in China (2008-2009)
Table 27, Ex-farm Average Price of Whole Country of Broiler by Month in China (2008-2009)
Table 28, China Poultry Meat Imports by Variety (2008-2009)
Table 29 , China Poultry Meat Imports by Original Country, (2005-2009)
Table 30, China Poultry Meat Output by Province (2006-2009)
Table 31, China Poultry Meat Exports by Variety (2008-009)
Table 32, China Poultry Meat Exportsby Country of Destination (2005-2009)
Table 33, Per-capita Consumption Proportion of Poultry Meat by Urban Households & by Rural Residents
Table 34, China Meat Output by Province (2006-2009)
Table 35, China Beef Output by Province (2006-2009)
Table 36, China Cattle Inventory by Province (2006-2009)
Table 37, China Cattle Slaughter by Province (2006-2009)
Table 38, China Mutton Output by Province, (2006-2009)
Table 39, China Goat Inventory by Province (2006-2009)
Table 40, China Mutton Inventory by Province (2006-2009)
Table 41, China Sheep Inventory by Province (2006-2009)
Table 42, China Sheep Slaughter by Province (2006-2009)
Table 43, China Meat Supply and Demand Balance Statement
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