Poland Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Date: April 6, 2016
Pages: 67
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: PED25469E15EN

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Poland Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Milk prices have remained low into Q116, but production in Poland has increased regardless as dairy farmers take advantage of the end of the quota scheme. The Polish government is lobbying for EU support on behalf of the dairy industry; however, in the long run, it will take the exploitation of overseas markets to secure the future well-being of the sub-sector. We are less optimistic about the sugar segmentŠ± which will struggle to increase yields sufficiently to thrive in the post-quota environment. Grain yields will fall sharply on the back of the drought in summer 2015, but our longer-term view is for improved farming practices to continue to boost output per hectare. The livestock segment has adjusted well to the fallout from Russian sanctions and the outbreak of African swine fever. We are confident that pork and poultry producers will enjoy export-led growth, supported by domestic and foreign investment, although low prices remain a concern for pig farmers.

Key BMI Forecasts
  • Wheat production growth to 2019/20: -4.7% to 11.1mn tonnes. Negative output growth is attributable to high base effects and low prices. We nevertheless expect to see improvements in yields.
  • Pork consumption growth to 2020: 3.6% to 1.8mn tonnes. As a staple of the Polish diet, demand for pork is quite inelastic, but rising incomes and low prices early in the forecast period will support modest demand growth.
  • 2016 real GDP growth: 3.9%, up from 3.5% in 2015.
  • 2016 consumer price inflation (ave): 0.6% y-o-y, up from -0.4% in 2015.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
  Table: Poland - Wheat Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Poland - Corn Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Poland - Barley Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Poland 2012-2020)
  Table: Corn Production (Poland 2012-2020)
  Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Poland 2012-2020)
Dairy Outlook
  Table: Poland - Milk Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Poland - Butter Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Poland - Cheese Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Poland 2012-2020)
  Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Poland 2012-2020)
  Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Poland 2012-2020)
Livestock Outlook
  Table: Poland - Poultry Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Poland - Pork Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Poland - Beef Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Poland 2012-2020)
  Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Poland 2012-2020)
  Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Poland 2012-2020)
Sugar Outlook
  Table: Poland - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Poland 2012-2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Europe GM Outlook
Europe Machinery Outlook
  Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates)
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Latest Updates
Regional Overview
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Main Agribusiness Players
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Poland 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Poland 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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