Philippines Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Date: March 2, 2016
Pages: 71
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We hold a positive view on the Philippines' agribusiness sector in the long term, given the country's potential for expansion into new sectors, such as palm oil. We particularly like the outlook for sugar production and believe the livestock sector will continue to show healthy growth rates. The Philippines' vast consumption market, along with strong government support, will foster domestic and foreign investment and favour output expansion. However, backyard farming and infrastructure problems, especially transport costs, will continue to hamper the sector's growth. These inefficiencies will become increasingly crippling as South East Asia moves towards the ASEAN Economic Community, which is supposed to lead to trade and investment liberalisation in the region. Although the Philippines' government appears to have taken the measure of the challenge and is now supporting rice and sugar production, agriculture in the country remains uncompetitive. As such, the sector is at risk of low cost imports from its neighbours over the medium term.

Key Forecasts
  • Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 19.5% to 3.0mn tonnes. Sugar production growth will be driven by improvements in yields. The government approved the Sugarcane Industry Development Act, which is aiming at diversifying the sugar sector towards more value-added products and will provide financing to farmers.
  • Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 16.3% to 1.0mn tonnes. Poultry production will record steady but unspectacular growth. Growth will be driven by investment, both domestic and foreign.
  • Rice production growth to 2019/20: 13.8% to 13.5mn tonnes. Production growth will be fuelled by continued improvements in infrastructure and yields as the government looks to attain self-sufficiency and support output.
  • Agribusiness market value: 2.6% increase to USD35.172bn in 2016, forecast to grow on average4.6% annually between 2016 and 2020.
  • 2016 real GDP growth: 6.0% (up from 5.7% expected in 2015; predicted to average 5.9% over 2016-2020).
  • 2016 consumer price inflation: 2.3% y-o-y (up from 1.4% expected in 2015; predicted to average 3.7% over 2016-2020).
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
  Table: Philippines - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Philippines - Risks To Grains Outlook
  Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020)
Rice Outlook
  Table: Philippines - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Philippines - Risks To Rice Outlook
  Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020)
Sugar Outlook
  Table: Philippines - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Philippines - Risks To Sugar Outlook
  Table: Philippines - Sugar Mills Operational Data
  Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020)
  Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Philippines 2012-2020)
Dairy Outlook
  Table: Philippines - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Philippines - Risks To Dairy Outlook
  Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020)
Livestock Outlook
  Table: Philippines - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Philippines - Risks To Livestock Outlook
  Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
  Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Asia GM Outlook
  Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares)
Downstream Analysis
  Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2019)
  Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2019)
  Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019)
Regional Overview
  Table: Impact Of El NiƱo On Crops
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Major Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Philippines 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Philippines 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Philippines 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Philippines 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Philippines 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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