Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

Date: November 4, 2015
Pages: 58
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download
ID: P732183A507EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We take a cautious view of the prospects for the Pakistani agribusiness sector. There are numerous challenges facing producers of all commodities covered by this report, chief among them are a dire security situation, erratic power supply, lack of availability of finance and vulnerability to extreme weather events. The sugar industry is the sub-sector we view as least promising due to its high production costs and poor relations between growers and processors. Nevertheless, the government has taken some positive steps to improve the availability of higher quality seeds for rice, wheat and corn which should raise yields in the medium term. Our expectation for rising prices out to 2019 also gives some grounds for optimism regarding the key export commodities of rice and cotton.

Key BMI Forecasts
  • Cotton consumption growth to 2019: 5.2% to 12.0mn 480lb bales. Favourable trade agreements with the EU will see an increase in demand from the textile industry, but higher prices will see growth rates moderate in the latter years of the forecast period.
  • Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 14.6% to 27.8mn tonnes. Production growth will be relatively modest as farmers struggle with rising input costs, particularly fertiliser.
  • 2015 real GDP growth: 4.2%. Up from 4.1% in 2014. Forecast to grow annually by 4.2% to 2019.
  • Consumer price inflation (ave): 4.5% in 2015 (down from 8.6% in 2014).
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Rice Outlook
  Table: Pakistan - Rice Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Pakistan 2011-2019)
Sugar Outlook
  Table: Pakistan - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Pakistan 2011-2019)
Grains Outlook
  Table: Pakistan - Wheat Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Pakistan - Corn Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Pakistan 2011-2019)
  Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Pakistan 2011-2019)
  Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Pakistan 2011-2019)
Cotton Outlook
  Table: Pakistan - Cotton Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (Pakistan 2011-2019)
Commodity Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia GM Outlook
  Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use
Asia Machinery Outlook
  Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (Cnybn)
  Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food Consumption
  Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2019)
  Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Pakistan 2014-2019)
Regional Overview
  Table: Impact Of El Nino On Crops
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Main Agricultural Companies
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Pakistan 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Pakistan 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Pakistan 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Pakistan 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Pakistan 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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