Mozambique Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Date: July 6, 2016
Pages: 64
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: M6631D11409EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Mozambique's agricultural production is currently being significantly impacted by the 2015/16 El Niño episode. The dry weather will dent grains, sugar and livestock production for a second consecutive year in 2016. We hold a relatively positive view on the agribusiness sector of Mozambique beyond 2017. Indeed, Mozambique has been attracting growing interest from foreign investors, and the industry will benefit from this trend in the coming years. However, although the country could be able to tap abundant and largely unexploited land and water resources, its production will not keep up with robust consumption growth. Self-sufficiency regarding corn and poultry will slowly decrease in the coming years, leading to increasing imports.

Key Forecasts
  • Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 11.5% to reach 457,000 tonnes. As one of Mozambique's key cash crops, long-term sugar production growth will reflect an increase in export-driven demand and the opening up of new markets; output is also expected to benefit from investment in biofuels.
  • Poultry consumption growth to 2020: 25.9% to 61,100 tonnes. Among the factors underpinning our strong growth expectations are Mozambique's expanding population and the country's rising standards of living.
  • 2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD10.67bn (up from USD10.54bn in 2015; growth expected to average 6.3% annually between 2016 and 2020).
  • 2016 real GDP growth: 6.3% (up from 6.2% in 2015; projected to average 7.0% annually between 2016 and 2020).
  • 2016 consumer price inflation: 14.9% y-o-y (up from 3.5% in 2015; predicted to average 9.7% y-o-y over 2016-2020).
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
  Table: Mozambique - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Mozambique - Risks To Grains Outlook
  Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Mozambique 2012-2020)
Sugar Outlook
  Table: Mozambique - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Mozambique - Risks To Sugar Outlook
  Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Mozambique 2012-2020)
Livestock Outlook
  Table: Mozambique - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Mozambique - Risks To Livestock Outlook
  Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Mozambique 2012-2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Africa GM Outlook
Africa Machinery Outlook
  Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Food Sales (Mozambique 2013-2020)
Regional Overview
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mozambique 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Mozambique 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mozambique 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Mozambique 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Mozambique 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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