Mexico Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Date: September 14, 2016
Pages: 74
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: MF58E596385EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We retain our generally positive outlook for the Mexican agricultural sector in our latest Q4 2016 report update. We have made some minor forecast revisions this quarter to account or production variations. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years, but we see positive trends in domestic consumption and production in the dairy and livestock sector. Grains will also begin to recover and post a generally upwards trend. Nevertheless, we remain concerned about the severity of the roya rust that is negative impacting the coffee crops in the country. Mexican coffee production has seen consecutive years of declines and we have made further negative revisions based on the worsening rust problem. On the demand side, rising per capita disposable incomes will continue to deliver demand-side growth, but we hold our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar subsectors.

Key Forecasts
  • We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by 1.9% in 2015/16 to reach 25.0mn tonnes. Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period. Corn consumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates to 2020.
  • We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork production outpacing poultry and beef and veal this year. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork, whereas higher costs will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Livestock Outlook
  Table: Mexico Livestock Production, Consumption & Trade Outlook
  Table: Risks to Outlook
  Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)
Sugar Outlook
  Table: Mexico - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks to Outlook
  Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020)
Coffee Outlook
  Table: Mexico Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks to Outlook
  Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020)
Dairy Outlook
  Table: Mexico Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks to Outlook
  Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)
Grains Outlook
  Table: Mexico Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks to Outlook
  Table: Grain Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Americas Machinery Outlook
  Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
Americas GM Outlook
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Food Sales (Mexico 2013-2020)
Regional Overview
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Mexico Competitive Landscape
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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