Mexico Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Date: June 1, 2016
Pages: 73
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We have made some minor forecast adjustments in our Q3 2016 Mexican agribusiness report update. We retain our positive outlook for various segments of the industry till then end of our forecast period in 2020. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years but we foresee positive trends in domestic production and consumption of the dairy sector, livestock sector and coffee segment. We hold a subdued forecast for the grains market due to corn production volatility this year as the crop is expected to decline by over 5% in terms of yield. Rising per capita disposable incomes will continue to deliver demand-side growth, but we hold our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar subsectors.

Key Forecasts
  • We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by7.8% in 2015/16 to reach 24.0mn tonnes. Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period. Corn consumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates of under 1% to 2020.
  • We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork production outpacing poultry and beef and veal. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork whereas higher cost will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.
  • The Mexican dairy sector will expand in terms of production in 2016 with domestic cheese demand and supply outpacing growth in liquid milk and butter sectors.
  • Rising per capital incomes and discretionary spending powers will boost food consumption in 2016 and beyond, over the course of our forecast period.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Livestock Outlook
  Table: Mexico Livestock Production, Consumption & Trade Outlook
  Table: Risks to Outlook
  Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)
Sugar Outlook
  Table: Mexico - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks to Outlook
  Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020)
Coffee Outlook
  Table: Mexico Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks to Outlook
  Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020)
Dairy Outlook
  Table: Mexico Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks to Outlook
  Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)
Grains Outlook
  Table: Mexico Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks to Outlook
  Table: Grain Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Americas GM Outlook
Americas Machinery Outlook
  Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Food Sales (Mexico 2013-2020)
Regional Overview
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Main Agribusiness Players
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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