Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Date: June 15, 2016
Pages: 72
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Malaysia's agribusiness sector is experiencing challenging times, as its most emblematic sector, the palm oil industry, is undermined by low prices and growing structural challenges. The cocoa sector is in an even worse position, suffering a severe decline after the stellar performance of the 1990s. The cocoa processing sector is facing increasing competition from Indonesia and is losing market share at a fast pace. The medium-term outlook is brighter, amidst strong growth prospects in the poultry sector and opportunities for value added palm based oleochemical exports. Malaysia will have to remain ahead of its biggest competitor, Indonesia, if its agribusiness sector is to stay afloat. As such, the next challenge for the country resides in the economic integration of ASEAN. The ASEAN Economic Community will present some opportunities, for example for poultry exports. However, it also poses risks to the future of the sugar refining sector.

Key Forecasts
  • Palm oil production growth to 2019/20: 12.4% to 22.3mn tonnes. Production growth will reaccelerate towards the end of our forecast period, after the slower growth recorded in recent years. The ongoing replanting and yield improvement programmes will bear fruit and support output.
  • Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 18.8% to 1.7mn tonnes. After a decade of strong growth, we forecast poultry meat production to grow at a moderate pace in the coming years, as rising production costs is undermining the development of the sector. Malaysia will maintain a fragile self-sufficiency in poultry.
  • Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 13.7% to 1.9mn tonnes. Consumption growth will be slower than in the previous decade as it already comes from a high base, Malaysians being among the largest consumers of sugar on a per capita basis. Future sugar demand will be driven mainly by rising incomes and population growth.
  • 2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD29.61bn, up 8.7% y-o-y, forecast to grow by 5.2% annually from 2016 to 2020.
  • 2016 real GDP growth: 4.6% (down from 5.0% in 2015, forecast to average 4.6% from 2016 to 2020).
  • 2016 consumer price inflation: 2.7% (up from 2.1% in 2015, forecast to average 2.3% from 2016 to 2020).
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Palm Oil Outlook
  Table: Malaysia - Palm Oil Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Malaysia - Risks To Palm Oil Outlook
  Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020)
Sugar Outlook
  Table: Malaysia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Malaysia - Risks To Sugar Outlook
  Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020)
Cocoa Outlook
  Table: Malaysia - Cocoa Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Malaysia - Risks To Cocoa Outlook
  Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020)
Livestock Outlook
  Table: Malaysia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Malaysia - Risks To Livestock Outlook
  Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020)
  Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020)
  Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2012-2020)
Commodity Price Analysis
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
  Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Food Sales (Malaysia 2013-2020)
Regional Overview
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Main Agribusiness Players
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Malaysia 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Malaysia 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Malaysia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Malaysia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Malaysia 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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