Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Date: January 27, 2016
Pages: 94
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We hold an optimistic outlook towards Indonesia's agriculture sector and see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as livestock, sugar and palm oil. The country's goal to become self sufficient in a large number of commodities is overly ambitious in light of the robust outlook for food and drink consumption. Agricultural production will struggle to expand in the coming years amidst scarce agricultural land, the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology, small-scale farmers. While we believe that Indonesia will be able to reduce its dependence on rice imports in the coming years, sugar, corn and beef self-sufficiency are far-fetched. More worryingly, we expect coffee and cocoa production to record very weak production growth in the coming years.

BMI Key Forecasts
  • Cocoa production growth between 2014/15 and 2019/20: 5.3% to 368,000 tonnes. Production growth will slightly accelerate beyond 2018, as private grinders are slowly developing programmes to improve plantation management and foster best practices. Until then output will see weak growth.
  • Palm oil consumption growth between 2015 and 2020: 30.1% to 12.6mn tonnes. Relatively recent refining and biodiesel policies (B15 mandate) will continue to inflate domestic consumption of palm oil in the coming years.
  • Sugar production growth between 2014/15 and 2019/20: 36.4% to 3.0mn tonnes. The strong growth rate is mainly due to base effects as production declines in 2014/15. Moderate expansion in plantations will help output grow in the coming years, but production growth will be held back by poor cane recovery rates, harvest management and infrastructure issues.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Rice Outlook
  Table: Indonesia - Rice Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
  Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019)
Grains Outlook
  Table: Indonesia - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Indonesia, 2013-2020)
Sugar Outlook
  Table: Indonesia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
Livestock Outlook
  Table: Indonesia - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
Coffee Outlook
  Table: Indonesia - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risks To Outlook
  Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
Cocoa Outlook
  Table: Indonesia - Cocoa Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Risk To Outlook
  Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
Palm Oil Outlook
  Table: Indonesia - Palm Oil Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Indonesia - Risks To Palm Oil Outlook
  Table: Indonesia - Minimum Wage ('000 IDR) & Palm Oil Production By Province, 2012-2016
  Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
  Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
  Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Asia GM Outlook
  Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares)
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
  Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019)
Canned Food
  Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019)
Regional Overview
  Table: Impact Of El NiƱo On Crops
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Major Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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